Breadth divergence monitor

When SPY reaches a new high, do the stocks underneath confirm it? A falling breadth line under a rising index means a narrowing rally, not a guaranteed top.

Now, Oct 16, 2026Watch: escalated 9 day(s) in a row

Latest new 63-day SPY highOct 6, 2026 5 of 5 families not confirming today

Two different lenses on market risk

Top risk asks whether several warning signs that have come before market tops are building up at once: six components, weighted into one score. Divergence asks whether the broad market is confirming the index’s strength: five breadth families either confirm SPY’s new highs or fail to. They complement each other, and neither predicts an exact turning point.

Each family today

Each breadth family today
Family	Now	Change, 20 days	Change, 60 days	From its 63-day peak	Confirmed the latest SPY high	Days not confirming in a row
Advance-decline line	169234	−4229	−6401	−12420	No	35
Stocks at 52-week highs, % (10-day)	2.75	+0.05	−1.33	−2.83	No	69
Stocks above the 50-day average, %	33.9	−5.7	−24.7	−33.0	No	35
Equal weight minus SPY, 63 days (points)	−0.9	−0.2	−0.5	−4.3	No	22
Sectors with fresh highs	6	+1	−3	−4	No	38

The rule

On a day SPY closes at a new 63-day high, each family confirms it or not. Advance-decline line: within half an average day’s net issues of its own 63-day high. New highs: the 10-day share at 52-week highs at least 70% of its 63-day peak. Participation: the share above the 50-day average within 10 points of its peak. Leadership: equal weight no more than 3 points behind SPY over 63 days, and at least 45% of stocks beating SPY. Sectors: within 2 of their peak count with fresh highs.
A watch starts when two or more families fail to confirm a new SPY high, and lasts while SPY stays within 3% of its 63-day high and two or more keep failing. It escalates after 5 days in a row, or when three or more fail.
Each family is one vote, however many measures feed it, so correlated measures do not count twice.

History since Mar 19, 2018

Top: SPY, shaded on divergence-watch days. Bottom: how many families were not confirming.

SPY
Divergence watch
Families not confirming

32 watches in 8.6 years; 2.7 a year were not followed by a 5% fall within 60 trading days. A watch came in the 3 months before 4 of the 4 falls of 10% or more, a median 28 trading days before the high.

Watches followed by a fall

Watches: followed by a fall
Watches followed by	within 30 days	within 60 days	within 90 days
A fall of 5% or more	5 of 31	7 of 30	8 of 30
A fall of 10% or more	1 of 31	5 of 30	6 of 30
A fall of 15% or more	1 of 31	3 of 30	3 of 30

Every decline of 10% or more

SPY declines of 10% or more and whether a warning came first
High	Low	Fall	Warning in the 3 months before the high	How long before
Sep 20, 2018	Dec 24, 2018	−19.3%	Yes	48 days
Feb 19, 2020	Mar 23, 2020	−33.7%	Yes	27 days
Jan 3, 2022	Oct 12, 2022	−24.5%	Yes	30 days
Feb 19, 2025	Apr 8, 2025	−18.8%	Yes	19 days

Every divergence warning (32), newest first

Every warning and SPY afterwards
Started	Lasted (days)	SPY lowest within 30 days	60 days	90 days	Within 60 days
Oct 6, 2026	9	–	–	–	–
Aug 3, 2026	4	−0.0%	–	–	–
Apr 22, 2026	24	−0.4%	−0.4%	−0.4%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Apr 14, 2026	1	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Sep 9, 2025	49	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Sep 4, 2025	2	−0.3%	−0.3%	−0.3%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Aug 8, 2025	10	−0.3%	−0.3%	−0.3%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Jul 21, 2025	1	−1.1%	−1.1%	−1.1%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Jun 25, 2025	1	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Jun 3, 2025	3	−0.5%	−0.5%	−0.5%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Jan 22, 2025	23	−5.6%	−17.9%	−17.9%	Fall of 10%+
Oct 14, 2024	2	−2.7%	−2.7%	−2.7%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Oct 9, 2024	2	−1.5%	−1.5%	−1.5%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Jun 5, 2024	26	−0.1%	−2.9%	−2.9%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Jan 19, 2024	59	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Nov 15, 2023	11	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
May 26, 2023	4	−0.5%	−0.5%	−0.5%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Apr 28, 2023	16	−2.6%	−2.6%	−2.6%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Dec 23, 2021	16	−8.4%	−11.5%	−12.2%	Fall of 10%+
Dec 10, 2021	6	−7.4%	−11.3%	−11.3%	Fall of 10%+
Nov 18, 2021	7	−4.1%	−7.9%	−11.1%	Fall of 5-10%
Jun 4, 2021	74	−1.5%	−1.5%	−1.5%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Mar 26, 2021	32	−0.3%	−0.3%	−0.3%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Aug 18, 2020	12	−4.3%	−4.3%	−4.3%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Feb 5, 2020	12	−27.9%	−32.6%	−32.6%	Fall of 10%+
Jan 9, 2020	3	−1.5%	−31.3%	−31.3%	Fall of 10%+
Jul 26, 2019	2	−6.0%	−6.0%	−6.0%	Fall of 5-10%
Jun 20, 2019	6	−1.3%	−3.6%	−3.6%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Apr 8, 2019	24	−2.7%	−4.9%	−4.9%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Apr 4, 2019	1	−2.2%	−4.4%	−4.4%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Mar 13, 2019	6	−0.4%	−2.0%	−2.0%	False alarm (no 5% fall)
Jul 13, 2018	62	−0.1%	−0.1%	−5.2%	False alarm (no 5% fall)

Free · every Friday after the close

The health score and the top-risk score, and how far each moved
Every indicator that turned bullish or bearish, and why
Whether breadth confirmed the S&P 500’s new highs
The charts that matter, in under two minutes

See the latest report (issue of Oct 16, 2026) →