Every selloff since 2017, by the same rules
Each fall of 10% or more in SPY, and what the health score, the top-risk score, the divergence monitor and each indicator showed before and at the high. Warnings and misses alike, with the rules as published today applied to past prices.
Jan 26, 2018: a 10% fall
SPY peaked on Jan 26, 2018 and bottomed on Feb 8, 2018, back to its high on Aug 6, 2018.
- Health score: 65 at the high; lowest in the 3 months before: 56.
- Top risk: – at the high; highest in the 3 months before: – (no reading).
- Divergence watch: 0 day(s) in the 3 months before the high.
- Bearish at the high: Small against large companies, Stocks beating SPY. Also bearish at some point in the 3 months before: Hindenburg Omen, McClellan Oscillator.
Sep 20, 2018: a 19% fall
SPY peaked on Sep 20, 2018 and bottomed on Dec 24, 2018, back to its high on Apr 12, 2019.
- Health score: 60 at the high; lowest in the 3 months before: 55.
- Top risk: 24 at the high; highest in the 3 months before: 39 (watch).
- Divergence watch: 49 day(s) in the 3 months before the high.
- Bearish at the high: Hindenburg Omen, Small against large companies, Stocks beating SPY. Also bearish at some point in the 3 months before: McClellan Oscillator.
Feb 19, 2020: a 34% fall
SPY peaked on Feb 19, 2020 and bottomed on Mar 23, 2020, back to its high on Aug 10, 2020.
- Health score: 55 at the high; lowest in the 3 months before: 36.
- Top risk: 26 at the high; highest in the 3 months before: 45 (watch).
- Divergence watch: 13 day(s) in the 3 months before the high.
- Bearish at the high: Hindenburg Omen, Small against large companies, Valuation, Stocks beating SPY. Also bearish at some point in the 3 months before: Advance-decline line, McClellan Oscillator, Stocks above their 20-day average.
Jan 3, 2022: a 24% fall
SPY peaked on Jan 3, 2022 and bottomed on Oct 12, 2022, back to its high on Dec 13, 2023.
- Health score: 36 at the high; lowest in the 3 months before: 23.
- Top risk: 58 at the high; highest in the 3 months before: 81 (high).
- Divergence watch: 20 day(s) in the 3 months before the high.
- Bearish at the high: Hindenburg Omen, Advance-decline line, Equal weight against SPY, Small against large companies, Valuation, Stocks beating SPY. Also bearish at some point in the 3 months before: McClellan Oscillator, New highs minus new lows, Sector breadth, Up/down volume, Stocks above their 20-day average.
Feb 19, 2025: a 19% fall
SPY peaked on Feb 19, 2025 and bottomed on Apr 8, 2025, back to its high on Jun 26, 2025.
- Health score: 55 at the high; lowest in the 3 months before: 27.
- Top risk: 31 at the high; highest in the 3 months before: 61 (elevated).
- Divergence watch: 20 day(s) in the 3 months before the high.
- Bearish at the high: Hindenburg Omen, Small against large companies, Valuation. Also bearish at some point in the 3 months before: Advance-decline line, McClellan Oscillator, 90% up and down days, Stocks above their 20-day average, Stocks beating SPY.
Backtested: the rules were written after these events, which is why the live record matters more.
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