Market health 36 (Soft), top risk 45 (Watch), divergence: diverging.

Bear Rhythm

Weekly report · the week of Oct 12 · to the close of Oct 16, 2026

Educational information only, the same for every reader: it describes market indicators and how they have behaved, and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Backtested results are hypothetical; past results do not guarantee future results.

MARKET HEALTH

Dial: market health 36 of 100, Soft

36/100 · Soft

Unchanged from last week

The health score →

MARKET TOP RISK

Dial: market top risk 45 of 100, Watch

45/100 · Watch

Down 32 from last week

What drives it →

DIVERGENCE

Diverging

0 of 5 confirming

SPY is near its highs, but 5 of 5 breadth families are not confirming.

The monitor →

What the data is telling us

Breadth is softening: more indicators are weakening than strengthening. The index is near its highs while participation narrows: 5 of 5 breadth families are not confirming, a pattern that has come before several tops and also many times when nothing followed. Some early warning signs of a top are present, but they do not yet agree. These readings describe conditions, not a forecast.

This week

SPY fell 2.0% this week. In the health score, 0 indicators are bullish, 8 neutral and 3 bearish. Market top risk fell 32 points, to 45 (watch). SPY made no new 63-day high this week. A breadth divergence watch is on.

Indicators that changed

▼ Hindenburg Omen: Neutral → Bearish
▲ Valuation: Bearish → Neutral

Line chart: the market health score and top risk over the past year, with SPY

The past year: market health (blue), top risk (rust) and SPY (dashed). Above 65, most health indicators are bullish; below 35, most are bearish.

Every indicator

Hindenburg OmenBearish2.7% of stocks at 52-week highs, 2.9% at lows. Last fired Oct 13, 2026.
Advance-decline lineBearishThe line is below its 50-day average.
McClellan OscillatorNeutralOscillator at −3.
Stocks above their 200-day averageNeutral51% of stocks above their 200-day average, 34% above the 50-day.
New highs minus new lowsNeutralHighs minus lows: +0.1% of stocks (10-day average).
Zweig breadth thrustNeutralBreadth average 0.47. Last thrust Apr 24, 2025.
90% up and down daysNeutralLast 90% down day: Dec 18, 2024. Last 90% up day: Apr 22, 2025.
Equal weight against SPYNeutralEqual weight 0.9 points behind SPY over 63 days.
Sector breadthNeutral6 of 11 sectors have most stocks above the 200-day average.
Small against large companiesBearishSmall against large 4.8% below its 50-day average.
ValuationNeutralMedian price to sales 3.70x; more expensive than 79% of readings since 2016.
Up/down volumeNeutralRising stocks traded 0.89x the dollar volume of falling stocks over 10 days.
Stocks above their 20-day averageNeutral44% of stocks above their 20-day average (34% above the 50-day).
Stocks beating SPYBearish31% of stocks beat SPY over the last 63 trading days.
See every chart, rule and backtest →
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Educational information only, the same for every reader: it describes market indicators and how they have behaved, and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Backtested results are hypothetical; past results do not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer: https://bearrhythm.com/disclaimer.html