Overview › Stock breadth
Advance-decline line today
A running total of rising stocks minus falling stocks: is the rise broad or narrow? Updated after every US market close: the advance-decline line (A/D line), with its exact rule and its record since 2017.
NowBearishsince Sep 8, 2026
Reading, Oct 16, 2026The line is below its 50-day average.
Live sinceOct 16, 2026readings after this day are the live record
Backtest fromNov 27, 20172,234 trading days
What it means now
Advance-decline line is bearish today. The line is below its 50-day average. It was also bearish a week ago (170,504; now 169,234). On days in this state since 2017, SPY returned +4.8% on average over the next three months, against +3.7% from any day. Bearish signals were followed by a fall of 5% or more within three months 33% of the time (25 of 76), against 34% of all days. A description of the past, not a forecast.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Advance-decline line
- Its average
What is the advance-decline line?
The advance-decline line adds up, day after day, how many more stocks rose than fell. When the S&P 500 makes new highs but the line does not, the rise rests on fewer and fewer stocks, which traders call a divergence.
How it is calculated
- Each day, take the number of US stocks over $5 that rose minus the number that fell, and add it to a running total: the advance-decline line.
- Bullish when the line is above its 50-day average, bearish when it is below.
A standard setting, fixed before testing, not the best of the variants below. A state is decided from a day’s closing prices and published after that close.
How reliable has it been? Its record since Nov 27, 2017
Holding SPY, but T-bills while Advance-decline line was bearish, would have returned 7.9% a year with a worst fall of −22.9%, against 14.6% a year and −33.7% for SPY held throughout. Of its bearish signals with three months of history after them, 25 of 76 (33%) were followed by a fall of 5% or more in SPY within three months, against 34% of all 2,171 days (neighbouring days overlap, so days are not independent events). After its 77 bullish signals SPY returned +4.0% on average over three months, against +3.7% from any day. It turned bearish ahead of 4 of the 5 declines of 10% or more in this period.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Advance-decline line
- Its average
The full record and research: every state, decline, signal, variant and setting tested
SPY after each state
| From | Days | SPY, next month (avg) | SPY, next 3 months (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish days | 715 | +1.6% | +4.8% |
| Bullish days | 1,519 | +1.1% | +3.2% |
| All days | 2,234 | +1.3% | +3.7% |
Averages over every day in that state; the periods overlap, so treat them as a description, not a forecast.
Every decline of 10% or more
| High | Low | Fall | Bearish by the high | Days bearish on the way down | A month after the low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2018 | Feb 8, 2018 | −10.1% | Yes | 50% | Bullish |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −19.3% | No | 88% | Bullish |
| Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −33.7% | Yes | 88% | Bearish |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −24.5% | Yes | 67% | Bullish |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −18.8% | Yes | 94% | Bullish |
“Bearish by the high”: bearish at some point from a month before SPY’s high to a week after it.
Every signal (155), newest first
| Date | Turned | SPY 1 month later | 3 months | 6 months | Lowest close within 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Bearish | +1.7% | – | – | – |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Bullish | +0.5% | – | – | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bearish | −0.3% | – | – | – |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Bullish | +9.8% | +13.8% | +18.2% | +0.0% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Bearish | −1.7% | +10.0% | +15.2% | −5.7% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Bullish | +0.9% | −3.3% | +10.0% | −7.2% |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Bearish | +2.0% | −3.6% | +10.8% | −7.1% |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Bullish | +2.6% | +1.9% | +12.7% | −0.5% |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Bearish | +1.3% | +1.9% | +10.5% | −2.9% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Bullish | +0.9% | +0.0% | +10.2% | −4.5% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Bearish | −0.6% | +1.0% | +5.4% | −5.1% |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Bullish | −1.7% | +2.4% | +6.5% | −2.8% |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Bearish | +1.7% | +5.0% | +7.9% | −1.2% |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Bullish | +1.0% | +4.4% | +7.4% | −1.9% |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Bearish | −0.0% | +3.7% | +2.8% | −2.8% |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Bullish | −0.4% | +2.7% | +1.5% | −3.1% |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Bearish | +1.3% | +3.4% | +2.2% | −2.5% |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Bullish | +2.1% | +3.1% | −0.9% | −2.5% |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Bearish | +1.6% | +4.4% | −1.9% | −1.3% |
| Aug 4, 2025 | Bullish | +2.0% | +8.4% | +9.9% | −0.5% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Bearish | +3.0% | +9.6% | +12.5% | +1.0% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Bullish | +5.9% | +16.9% | +23.6% | +0.7% |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Bearish | −4.0% | −2.5% | +8.2% | −17.0% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Bullish | −4.8% | −6.9% | +5.8% | −17.3% |
| Feb 3, 2025 | Bearish | −2.5% | −5.4% | +5.7% | −16.7% |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Bullish | +1.2% | −12.3% | +5.8% | −17.4% |
| Dec 13, 2024 | Bearish | −1.8% | −5.8% | −0.5% | −8.4% |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Bullish | +0.5% | +0.5% | −0.4% | −1.9% |
| Nov 15, 2024 | Bearish | +3.2% | +4.6% | +0.1% | −0.6% |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Bullish | +6.6% | +6.8% | −0.2% | +1.2% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Bearish | +6.2% | +6.2% | −1.1% | +0.2% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | Bullish | +3.0% | +11.7% | +14.7% | +0.4% |
| Aug 7, 2024 | Bearish | +4.2% | +11.5% | +16.6% | +2.3% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Bullish | +5.3% | +9.5% | +16.9% | −0.7% |
| Aug 5, 2024 | Bearish | +6.5% | +10.7% | +17.5% | +0.2% |
| Jul 11, 2024 | Bullish | −4.2% | +4.0% | +5.0% | −7.0% |
| Jun 13, 2024 | Bearish | +4.5% | +3.9% | +12.1% | −4.3% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Bullish | +4.1% | +3.6% | +12.9% | −4.1% |
| Jun 11, 2024 | Bearish | +4.6% | +3.6% | +13.0% | −3.3% |
| Jun 10, 2024 | Bullish | +4.2% | +2.8% | +13.6% | −3.1% |
| Jun 7, 2024 | Bearish | +5.5% | +2.7% | +14.5% | −2.8% |
| May 2, 2024 | Bullish | +4.5% | +5.9% | +13.3% | +1.2% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | Bearish | +4.1% | +10.1% | +16.6% | −0.3% |
| Apr 29, 2024 | Bullish | +3.1% | +6.6% | +14.6% | −1.9% |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Bearish | +2.0% | +10.3% | +14.2% | −3.1% |
| Nov 14, 2023 | Bullish | +5.2% | +12.3% | +18.7% | +0.2% |
| Sep 6, 2023 | Bearish | −4.5% | +2.7% | +16.3% | −7.6% |
| Aug 29, 2023 | Bullish | −4.3% | +1.6% | +14.0% | −8.2% |
| Aug 16, 2023 | Bearish | +1.2% | +2.4% | +15.1% | −6.3% |
| Jun 2, 2023 | Bullish | +3.9% | +5.8% | +8.1% | −0.3% |
| May 30, 2023 | Bearish | +4.7% | +7.3% | +9.1% | −0.6% |
| May 26, 2023 | Bullish | +4.3% | +5.8% | +9.0% | −0.5% |
| May 25, 2023 | Bearish | +5.6% | +6.5% | +10.6% | +0.8% |
| May 17, 2023 | Bullish | +6.2% | +5.5% | +9.1% | −1.0% |
| May 16, 2023 | Bearish | +7.9% | +7.6% | +10.2% | +0.2% |
| May 15, 2023 | Bullish | +5.9% | +7.6% | +7.4% | −0.7% |
| May 11, 2023 | Bearish | +5.3% | +8.5% | +6.0% | −0.5% |
| May 5, 2023 | Bullish | +3.7% | +9.6% | +6.1% | −0.6% |
| May 2, 2023 | Bearish | +2.7% | +10.0% | +2.5% | −1.4% |
| Apr 27, 2023 | Bullish | +1.8% | +11.2% | +0.8% | −1.8% |
| Apr 25, 2023 | Bearish | +1.2% | +12.6% | +5.1% | −0.4% |
| Apr 10, 2023 | Bullish | +0.3% | +8.4% | +6.3% | −1.3% |
| Apr 4, 2023 | Bearish | −0.9% | +8.0% | +4.7% | −1.1% |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Bullish | +0.4% | +8.8% | +5.1% | −1.2% |
| Mar 9, 2023 | Bearish | +5.0% | +10.0% | +14.6% | −1.6% |
| Dec 29, 2022 | Bullish | +6.0% | +7.2% | +16.6% | −1.1% |
| Dec 28, 2022 | Bearish | +6.4% | +7.6% | +18.6% | +0.7% |
| Oct 25, 2022 | Bullish | +4.5% | +5.6% | +8.1% | −3.6% |
| Sep 16, 2022 | Bearish | −4.9% | +1.1% | +3.0% | −7.5% |
| Sep 8, 2022 | Bullish | −9.0% | −1.4% | −2.8% | −10.6% |
| Sep 1, 2022 | Bearish | −7.1% | +3.2% | +2.9% | −9.7% |
| Jul 19, 2022 | Bullish | +8.8% | −6.1% | +0.7% | −8.7% |
| Jul 8, 2022 | Bearish | +6.3% | −3.6% | +0.7% | −7.7% |
| Jul 7, 2022 | Bullish | +6.3% | −2.7% | −1.6% | −7.8% |
| Jun 9, 2022 | Bearish | −4.7% | +1.7% | −0.5% | −8.7% |
| Jun 6, 2022 | Bullish | −5.1% | −4.7% | −2.1% | −11.0% |
| Jun 3, 2022 | Bearish | −6.2% | −4.0% | −0.0% | −10.7% |
| Jun 2, 2022 | Bullish | −8.1% | −4.6% | −1.6% | −12.2% |
| May 31, 2022 | Bearish | −8.2% | −3.1% | −3.5% | −11.2% |
| May 27, 2022 | Bullish | −8.0% | −2.6% | −3.9% | −11.7% |
| Apr 21, 2022 | Bearish | −11.1% | −9.4% | −15.9% | −16.3% |
| Apr 19, 2022 | Bullish | −11.9% | −10.9% | −15.9% | −17.6% |
| Apr 18, 2022 | Bearish | −6.8% | −10.0% | −15.5% | −16.3% |
| Apr 13, 2022 | Bullish | −9.4% | −12.7% | −16.7% | −17.3% |
| Apr 8, 2022 | Bearish | −10.8% | −14.5% | −18.9% | −18.1% |
| Mar 18, 2022 | Bullish | +0.1% | −17.3% | −11.9% | −17.5% |
| Jan 5, 2022 | Bearish | −4.2% | −4.4% | −16.4% | −11.1% |
| Jan 4, 2022 | Bullish | −6.5% | −5.3% | −17.9% | −12.8% |
| Nov 26, 2021 | Bearish | +4.3% | −4.5% | −8.9% | −7.7% |
| Oct 12, 2021 | Bullish | +6.9% | +8.7% | +1.7% | +0.4% |
| Oct 11, 2021 | Bearish | +7.5% | +7.5% | +1.9% | −0.2% |
| Oct 7, 2021 | Bullish | +6.8% | +7.1% | +3.0% | −1.1% |
| Sep 28, 2021 | Bearish | +4.7% | +10.3% | +7.1% | −1.2% |
| Sep 23, 2021 | Bullish | +2.2% | +5.9% | +2.3% | −3.3% |
| Sep 8, 2021 | Bearish | −2.4% | +4.2% | −4.6% | −4.6% |
| Aug 31, 2021 | Bullish | −4.7% | +1.2% | −2.4% | −4.8% |
| Jul 13, 2021 | Bearish | +1.9% | +0.1% | +7.6% | −2.4% |
| Jul 12, 2021 | Bullish | +1.3% | +0.5% | +7.4% | −2.8% |
| Jul 7, 2021 | Bearish | +1.7% | +0.0% | +10.7% | −2.2% |
| May 26, 2021 | Bullish | +2.1% | +7.5% | +12.5% | −0.7% |
| May 25, 2021 | Bearish | +2.0% | +7.5% | +12.5% | −0.5% |
| May 20, 2021 | Bullish | +1.7% | +6.3% | +13.5% | −0.1% |
| May 18, 2021 | Bearish | +2.4% | +8.1% | +14.2% | −0.3% |
| May 14, 2021 | Bullish | +1.9% | +7.4% | +12.1% | −1.4% |
| May 11, 2021 | Bearish | +2.3% | +7.2% | +14.0% | −2.1% |
| Apr 21, 2021 | Bullish | −0.2% | +4.8% | +9.0% | −2.6% |
| Apr 20, 2021 | Bearish | −0.3% | +4.9% | +9.2% | −1.6% |
| Apr 1, 2021 | Bullish | +4.4% | +7.8% | +7.8% | +1.2% |
| Mar 29, 2021 | Bearish | +5.5% | +8.4% | +12.6% | −0.3% |
| Mar 26, 2021 | Bullish | +5.4% | +8.1% | +12.8% | −0.3% |
| Mar 23, 2021 | Bearish | +5.8% | +9.0% | +12.1% | −0.5% |
| Mar 5, 2021 | Bullish | +6.2% | +10.5% | +18.9% | −0.5% |
| Mar 4, 2021 | Bearish | +8.2% | +11.5% | +20.7% | +1.3% |
| Nov 2, 2020 | Bullish | +11.1% | +16.1% | +26.9% | +1.8% |
| Oct 28, 2020 | Bearish | +11.3% | +13.8% | +28.7% | −0.0% |
| Oct 2, 2020 | Bullish | −1.1% | +10.9% | +22.6% | −2.2% |
| Sep 17, 2020 | Bearish | +3.8% | +10.7% | +17.3% | −3.5% |
| Sep 16, 2020 | Bullish | +3.0% | +9.5% | +16.5% | −4.4% |
| Sep 4, 2020 | Bearish | −1.8% | +8.4% | +14.0% | −5.4% |
| Apr 24, 2020 | Bullish | +5.7% | +13.9% | +22.8% | −0.5% |
| Feb 24, 2020 | Bearish | −24.1% | −7.8% | +6.4% | −30.4% |
| Feb 4, 2020 | Bullish | −8.1% | −12.5% | +1.4% | −31.8% |
| Jan 31, 2020 | Bearish | −6.7% | −11.6% | +2.6% | −30.3% |
| Oct 10, 2019 | Bullish | +5.4% | +11.6% | −5.0% | +0.9% |
| Oct 8, 2019 | Bearish | +6.4% | +13.0% | −4.0% | +0.9% |
| Oct 4, 2019 | Bullish | +4.4% | +10.5% | −9.0% | −2.0% |
| Oct 2, 2019 | Bearish | +5.3% | +13.3% | −11.6% | +0.2% |
| Sep 4, 2019 | Bullish | −0.7% | +5.8% | +3.9% | −1.6% |
| Sep 3, 2019 | Bearish | −0.5% | +7.7% | +8.6% | −0.5% |
| Aug 29, 2019 | Bullish | +1.9% | +8.3% | +6.7% | −1.1% |
| Aug 9, 2019 | Bearish | +2.2% | +6.2% | +15.9% | −2.6% |
| Aug 8, 2019 | Bullish | +1.6% | +5.1% | +14.2% | −3.3% |
| Aug 5, 2019 | Bearish | +3.6% | +8.4% | +17.0% | +0.0% |
| Jun 27, 2019 | Bullish | +3.4% | +2.4% | +11.8% | −2.6% |
| Jun 25, 2019 | Bearish | +3.2% | +2.2% | +11.5% | −2.4% |
| Jun 17, 2019 | Bullish | +3.4% | +4.2% | +10.7% | −1.4% |
| Jun 14, 2019 | Bearish | +4.1% | +4.6% | +10.7% | −1.4% |
| Jun 13, 2019 | Bullish | +4.4% | +4.6% | +9.6% | −1.5% |
| May 23, 2019 | Bearish | +4.6% | +4.1% | +11.2% | −2.7% |
| Jan 15, 2019 | Bullish | +5.4% | +11.9% | +15.4% | +0.2% |
| Jan 14, 2019 | Bearish | +6.8% | +13.1% | +17.5% | +1.1% |
| Jan 9, 2019 | Bullish | +4.8% | +12.2% | +17.1% | −0.2% |
| Dec 4, 2018 | Bearish | −5.3% | +2.2% | +7.5% | −12.8% |
| Dec 3, 2018 | Bullish | −9.1% | −0.9% | +3.0% | −15.6% |
| Oct 1, 2018 | Bearish | −8.2% | −13.7% | −0.8% | −19.2% |
| Apr 10, 2018 | Bullish | +1.6% | +5.7% | +9.5% | −1.0% |
| Apr 6, 2018 | Bearish | +2.8% | +6.5% | +12.5% | +0.5% |
| Apr 4, 2018 | Bullish | −0.4% | +3.2% | +11.6% | −1.5% |
| Mar 22, 2018 | Bearish | +1.1% | +4.5% | +11.8% | −2.4% |
| Mar 5, 2018 | Bullish | −2.8% | +1.4% | +7.6% | −5.0% |
| Feb 28, 2018 | Bearish | −2.7% | +0.8% | +7.6% | −4.8% |
| Feb 23, 2018 | Bullish | −3.1% | −0.3% | +4.9% | −5.9% |
| Feb 22, 2018 | Bearish | −4.2% | +1.5% | +6.7% | −4.4% |
| Feb 15, 2018 | Bullish | −0.5% | +0.0% | +4.9% | −5.3% |
| Feb 2, 2018 | Bearish | −0.9% | −3.0% | +3.8% | −6.5% |
Variants tested
The same measures for other common settings, so the result can be checked for luck: a rule that only works with one exact number is fragile. The highlighted row is the published rule.
| Variant | SPY or T-bills, a year | Worst fall | Days bearish | Bearish signals | Followed by a 5% fall | Bullish signals | SPY 3 months after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21-day average | 5.9% | −21.5% | 39% | 153 | 30% (45 of 150) | 152 | +4.1% |
| 50-day average (this site's rule) | 7.9% | −22.9% | 32% | 78 | 33% (25 of 76) | 77 | +4.0% |
| 100-day average | 13.3% | −15.8% | 27% | 52 | 34% (17 of 50) | 52 | +5.7% |
| 200-day average | 10.9% | −23.0% | 19% | 33 | 42% (13 of 31) | 32 | +7.9% |
| SPY held throughout | 14.6% | −33.7% | – | – | 34% (any day) | – | +3.7% (any day) |
“SPY or T-bills”: SPY, switching to T-bills (BIL) at the next close after the rule turns bearish and back after it stops, 0.10% per switch, interest and dividends included. Hypothetical: no costs beyond that, no taxes.
Overlap with the other indicators
It agreed most often with New highs minus new lows (79% of days in the same state). An indicator that almost always agrees with another adds little to the score.
Agreement with every indicator
| Indicator | Same state |
|---|---|
| New highs minus new lows | 79% |
| Small against large companies | 66% |
| Sector breadth | 61% |
| Stocks above their 200-day average | 55% |
| McClellan Oscillator | 39% |
| Stocks above their 20-day average | 29% |
| Equal weight against SPY | 26% |
| Stocks beating SPY | 23% |
| Up/down volume | 17% |
| Hindenburg Omen | 12% |
| Valuation | 12% |
| 90% up and down days | 9% |
| Zweig breadth thrust | 8% |
Research: what worked and what did not
The same test run many ways: the published rule year by year, every variant year by year, and grids over its settings. Return numbers are SPY-or-T-bills against SPY over the same days, in points; green means better than holding SPY, red worse.
Year by year
| Year | SPY | SPY or T-bills | Difference, points | SPY’s worst fall | Days bearish | Days bullish | Bearish signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017* | 3.1% | 3.1% | +0.0 difference in 2017 | −0.7% | 0% | 100% | 0 |
| 2018 | −4.6% | −1.1% | +3.4 difference in 2018 | −19.3% | 34% | 66% | 7 |
| 2019 | 31.2% | 11.7% | −19.6 difference in 2019 | −6.6% | 18% | 82% | 9 |
| 2020 | 18.4% | 17.4% | −1.0 difference in 2020 | −33.7% | 26% | 74% | 5 |
| 2021 | 28.7% | 8.5% | −20.2 difference in 2021 | −5.1% | 38% | 62% | 13 |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −16.3% | +1.9 difference in 2022 | −24.5% | 56% | 44% | 11 |
| 2023 | 26.2% | 4.2% | −22.0 difference in 2023 | −10.0% | 36% | 64% | 10 |
| 2024 | 24.9% | 18.4% | −6.5 difference in 2024 | −8.4% | 21% | 79% | 10 |
| 2025 | 17.7% | 15.8% | −1.9 difference in 2025 | −18.8% | 35% | 65% | 10 |
| 2026* | 12.8% | 13.4% | +0.6 difference in 2026 | −8.9% | 26% | 74% | 3 |
* Part of a year: Nov 27 to the end of 2017, and 2026 to Oct 16.
Every variant, year by year
Does a setting win steadily, or in one lucky year? Each square is that year’s difference from SPY.
| Variant | 2017* | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* | A year, whole period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21-day average | −2.2 21-day average, 2017 | +0.9 21-day average, 2018 | −14.4 21-day average, 2019 | +5.4 21-day average, 2020 | −24.0 21-day average, 2021 | +4.8 21-day average, 2022 | −18.0 21-day average, 2023 | −30.3 21-day average, 2024 | −5.2 21-day average, 2025 | −1.4 21-day average, 2026 | −8.8 21-day average, a year over the whole period |
| 50-day average (this site's rule) | +0.0 50-day average (this site's rule), 2017, the site's rule | +3.4 50-day average (this site's rule), 2018, the site's rule | −19.6 50-day average (this site's rule), 2019, the site's rule | −1.0 50-day average (this site's rule), 2020, the site's rule | −20.2 50-day average (this site's rule), 2021, the site's rule | +1.9 50-day average (this site's rule), 2022, the site's rule | −22.0 50-day average (this site's rule), 2023, the site's rule | −6.5 50-day average (this site's rule), 2024, the site's rule | −1.9 50-day average (this site's rule), 2025, the site's rule | +0.6 50-day average (this site's rule), 2026, the site's rule | −6.7 50-day average (this site's rule), a year over the whole period, the site's rule |
| 100-day average | – 100-day average, 2017 | +15.2 100-day average, 2018 | −8.8 100-day average, 2019 | −8.4 100-day average, 2020 | −10.3 100-day average, 2021 | +8.1 100-day average, 2022 | −10.5 100-day average, 2023 | −5.1 100-day average, 2024 | +1.4 100-day average, 2025 | −3.0 100-day average, 2026 | −1.7 100-day average, a year over the whole period |
| 200-day average | – 200-day average, 2017 | +5.1 200-day average, 2018 | −10.0 200-day average, 2019 | −12.9 200-day average, 2020 | −8.3 200-day average, 2021 | +7.3 200-day average, 2022 | −13.3 200-day average, 2023 | −0.0 200-day average, 2024 | −3.2 200-day average, 2025 | −4.4 200-day average, 2026 | −4.1 200-day average, a year over the whole period |
Colour: points of return that year against SPY.8 or more3 to 80.5 to 3−0.5 to 0.5−3 to −0.5−10 to −3below −10 the site’s rule
The settings, tested on a grid
Average length and waiting: return against SPY
Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. Rows: the average the line is compared with. Columns: how many trading days in a row a new state must hold before it counts (the usual way to cut false signals; the site's rule does not wait).
| Wait → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of the line ↓ | No wait | 2 days | 3 days | 5 days | 10 days | Average |
| 10 days | −10.7 Average of the line 10 days, wait No wait | −9.1 Average of the line 10 days, wait 2 days | −6.6 Average of the line 10 days, wait 3 days | −7.3 Average of the line 10 days, wait 5 days | −3.1 Average of the line 10 days, wait 10 days | −7.3 |
| 21 days | −8.8 Average of the line 21 days, wait No wait | −8.6 Average of the line 21 days, wait 2 days | −6.5 Average of the line 21 days, wait 3 days | −7.1 Average of the line 21 days, wait 5 days | −5.4 Average of the line 21 days, wait 10 days | −7.3 |
| 50 days | −6.7 Average of the line 50 days, wait No wait, the site's rule | −4.5 Average of the line 50 days, wait 2 days | −3.3 Average of the line 50 days, wait 3 days | −3.1 Average of the line 50 days, wait 5 days | −5.6 Average of the line 50 days, wait 10 days | −4.7 |
| 100 days | −1.7 Average of the line 100 days, wait No wait | −1.3 Average of the line 100 days, wait 2 days | −1.1 Average of the line 100 days, wait 3 days | −0.8 Average of the line 100 days, wait 5 days | −3.3 Average of the line 100 days, wait 10 days | −1.6 |
| 150 days | −2.2 Average of the line 150 days, wait No wait | −2.1 Average of the line 150 days, wait 2 days | −2.3 Average of the line 150 days, wait 3 days | −4.6 Average of the line 150 days, wait 5 days | −4.2 Average of the line 150 days, wait 10 days | −3.1 |
| 200 days | −4.1 Average of the line 200 days, wait No wait | −2.7 Average of the line 200 days, wait 2 days | −3.3 Average of the line 200 days, wait 3 days | −2.1 Average of the line 200 days, wait 5 days | −6.1 Average of the line 200 days, wait 10 days | −3.7 |
| Average | −5.7 | −4.7 | −3.8 | −4.1 | −4.6 | |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
Average length and waiting: how much smaller the worst fall was
Each square: SPY's worst fall minus the strategy's, in points (green: it fell less). Rows: the average the line is compared with. Columns: how many trading days in a row a new state must hold before it counts (the usual way to cut false signals; the site's rule does not wait).
| Wait → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of the line ↓ | No wait | 2 days | 3 days | 5 days | 10 days | Average |
| 10 days | +6.4 Average of the line 10 days, wait No wait | +11.9 Average of the line 10 days, wait 2 days | +15.1 Average of the line 10 days, wait 3 days | +11.9 Average of the line 10 days, wait 5 days | +8.0 Average of the line 10 days, wait 10 days | +10.7 |
| 21 days | +12.2 Average of the line 21 days, wait No wait | +15.3 Average of the line 21 days, wait 2 days | +16.8 Average of the line 21 days, wait 3 days | +10.6 Average of the line 21 days, wait 5 days | +10.0 Average of the line 21 days, wait 10 days | +13.0 |
| 50 days | +10.8 Average of the line 50 days, wait No wait, the site's rule | +8.8 Average of the line 50 days, wait 2 days | +15.8 Average of the line 50 days, wait 3 days | +16.6 Average of the line 50 days, wait 5 days | +11.6 Average of the line 50 days, wait 10 days | +12.7 |
| 100 days | +17.9 Average of the line 100 days, wait No wait | +17.7 Average of the line 100 days, wait 2 days | +14.9 Average of the line 100 days, wait 3 days | +17.2 Average of the line 100 days, wait 5 days | +9.5 Average of the line 100 days, wait 10 days | +15.5 |
| 150 days | +16.4 Average of the line 150 days, wait No wait | +14.0 Average of the line 150 days, wait 2 days | +14.8 Average of the line 150 days, wait 3 days | +5.1 Average of the line 150 days, wait 5 days | +0.2 Average of the line 150 days, wait 10 days | +10.1 |
| 200 days | +10.7 Average of the line 200 days, wait No wait | +13.5 Average of the line 200 days, wait 2 days | +11.4 Average of the line 200 days, wait 3 days | +7.0 Average of the line 200 days, wait 5 days | −0.8 Average of the line 200 days, wait 10 days | +8.4 |
| Average | +12.4 | +13.5 | +14.8 | +11.4 | +6.4 | |
Colour: points smaller worst fall than SPY's.10 or more5 to 101 to 5−1 to 1−5 to −1−10 to −5below −10 the site’s rule
Average length and waiting: SPY after the bullish days
Each square: SPY's average return over the next 63 trading days from the bullish days, minus its average from every day, in points (green: bullish days were followed by better than usual returns). Rows: the average the line is compared with. Columns: how many trading days in a row a new state must hold before it counts (the usual way to cut false signals; the site's rule does not wait).
| Wait → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of the line ↓ | No wait | 2 days | 3 days | 5 days | 10 days | Average |
| 10 days | −0.1 Average of the line 10 days, wait No wait | −0.1 Average of the line 10 days, wait 2 days | −0.1 Average of the line 10 days, wait 3 days | +0.0 Average of the line 10 days, wait 5 days | −0.3 Average of the line 10 days, wait 10 days | −0.1 |
| 21 days | −0.4 Average of the line 21 days, wait No wait | −0.5 Average of the line 21 days, wait 2 days | −0.4 Average of the line 21 days, wait 3 days | −0.5 Average of the line 21 days, wait 5 days | −0.7 Average of the line 21 days, wait 10 days | −0.5 |
| 50 days | −0.5 Average of the line 50 days, wait No wait, the site's rule | −0.5 Average of the line 50 days, wait 2 days | −0.5 Average of the line 50 days, wait 3 days | −0.5 Average of the line 50 days, wait 5 days | −0.5 Average of the line 50 days, wait 10 days | −0.5 |
| 100 days | −0.3 Average of the line 100 days, wait No wait | −0.3 Average of the line 100 days, wait 2 days | −0.3 Average of the line 100 days, wait 3 days | −0.3 Average of the line 100 days, wait 5 days | −0.3 Average of the line 100 days, wait 10 days | −0.3 |
| 150 days | −0.3 Average of the line 150 days, wait No wait | −0.3 Average of the line 150 days, wait 2 days | −0.3 Average of the line 150 days, wait 3 days | −0.3 Average of the line 150 days, wait 5 days | −0.3 Average of the line 150 days, wait 10 days | −0.3 |
| 200 days | −0.1 Average of the line 200 days, wait No wait | −0.1 Average of the line 200 days, wait 2 days | −0.1 Average of the line 200 days, wait 3 days | −0.2 Average of the line 200 days, wait 5 days | −0.0 Average of the line 200 days, wait 10 days | −0.1 |
| Average | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.4 | |
Colour: points of SPY return over the next 63 days, bullish days against all days.3 or more1.5 to 30.5 to 1.5−0.5 to 0.5−1.5 to −0.5−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
The two halves of the history
The best settings found over the whole period, and how each did in 2017–2021 and in 2022–2026 on its own. A setting that only works in one half is fitted to the past.
| Setting | Whole period, a year | 2017–2021 | 2022–2026 | Worst fall smaller by | Ahead in both halves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The site's rule, but 100-day average, waiting 5 days | −0.8 whole period | −2.4 2017 to 2021 | +0.6 2022 to 2026 | +17.2 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 100-day average, waiting 3 days | −1.1 whole period | −2.7 2017 to 2021 | +0.3 2022 to 2026 | +14.9 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 100-day average, waiting 2 days | −1.3 whole period | −3.0 2017 to 2021 | +0.1 2022 to 2026 | +17.7 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 100-day average | −1.7 whole period | −2.5 2017 to 2021 | −1.0 2022 to 2026 | +17.9 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 200-day average, waiting 5 days | −2.1 whole period | −9.3 2017 to 2021 | +3.3 2022 to 2026 | +7.0 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 150-day average, waiting 2 days | −2.1 whole period | −6.2 2017 to 2021 | +1.1 2022 to 2026 | +14.0 worst fall | No |
| The site’s rule | −6.7 whole period, the site's rule | −8.5 2017 to 2021, the site's rule | −5.2 2022 to 2026, the site's rule | +10.8 worst fall, the site's rule | No |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
Summary: the settings that helped the most
- Best single setting tested: the site's rule, but 100-day average, waiting 5 days: −0.8 points a year over SPY (−2.4 in 2017–2021, +0.6 in 2022–2026), against −6.7 for the site’s rule. Found by looking at the results, so it is the most flattering number here, not a forecast.
- Average of the line: 100 days did best on average (−1.6), 10 days worst (−7.3).
- Wait: 3 days did best on average (−3.8), No wait worst (−5.7).
- Average of the line (for the bullish days): made little difference (averages within half a point).
- Wait (for the bullish days): made little difference (averages within half a point).
- Choosing the best setting in advance: the setting with the best result in 2017–2021 (the site's rule, but 100-day average, waiting 5 days, −2.4) scored +0.6 in 2022–2026, against −5.2 for the site’s rule; 21 of the 30 settings tested beat the rule in those later years.
The site keeps the rule it published, so its live record stays honest. The heat maps show which ingredients mattered across many settings; any one best square is partly luck, because the history holds only a handful of real declines.
Live record
The rule went live after the close of Oct 16, 2026. Every reading since was made by the daily run after that day’s close and is kept exactly as made; the newest few are corrected only if late price data changes them.
No live readings yet: the first comes after the next trading day.
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