Overview › Stock breadth
Up/down volume ratio today
Is the money traded flowing into rising stocks or falling ones, day after day? Updated after every US market close: the advancing volume to declining volume ratio, with its exact rule and its record since 2017.
NowNeutralsince Aug 17, 2026
Reading, Oct 16, 2026Rising stocks traded 0.89x the dollar volume of falling stocks over 10 days.
Live sinceOct 16, 2026readings after this day are the live record
Backtest fromSep 29, 20172,274 trading days
What it means now
Up/down volume is neutral today. Rising stocks traded 0.89x the dollar volume of falling stocks over 10 days. It was also neutral a week ago (1.06; now 0.89). On days in this state since 2017, SPY returned +3.7% on average over the next three months, against +3.8% from any day. A description of the past, not a forecast.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Up / down dollar volume, 10-day
What does the up/down volume ratio show?
Ninety-percent days catch the extremes; this measure follows the ordinary days in between. A ratio above 1 means more money traded in rising stocks than in falling ones over the period: buyers in control.
How it is calculated
- Each day: the dollar volume (close x shares traded) of the US stocks over $5 that rose, and of those that fell. Add each up over the last 10 trading days.
- Ratio = rising volume / falling volume. Bullish above 1.5, bearish below 0.67, neutral between.
A standard setting, fixed before testing, not the best of the variants below. A state is decided from a day’s closing prices and published after that close.
How reliable has it been? Its record since Sep 29, 2017
Holding SPY, but T-bills while Up/down volume was bearish, would have returned 13.9% a year with a worst fall of −33.2%, against 14.8% a year and −33.7% for SPY held throughout. Of its bearish signals with three months of history after them, 17 of 47 (36%) were followed by a fall of 5% or more in SPY within three months, against 33% of all 2,211 days (neighbouring days overlap, so days are not independent events). After its 110 bullish signals SPY returned +3.2% on average over three months, against +3.8% from any day. It turned bearish ahead of 2 of the 5 declines of 10% or more in this period.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Up / down dollar volume, 10-day
The full record and research: every state, decline, signal, variant and setting tested
SPY after each state
| From | Days | SPY, next month (avg) | SPY, next 3 months (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish days | 109 | +2.0% | +7.0% |
| Neutral days | 1,859 | +1.3% | +3.7% |
| Bullish days | 306 | +0.8% | +3.0% |
| All days | 2,274 | +1.3% | +3.8% |
Averages over every day in that state; the periods overlap, so treat them as a description, not a forecast.
Every decline of 10% or more
| High | Low | Fall | Bearish by the high | Days bearish on the way down | A month after the low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2018 | Feb 8, 2018 | −10.1% | No | 20% | Neutral |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −19.3% | No | 23% | Bullish |
| Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −33.7% | Yes | 67% | Neutral |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −24.5% | Yes | 14% | Neutral |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −18.8% | No | 9% | Bullish |
“Bearish by the high”: bearish at some point from a month before SPY’s high to a week after it.
Every signal (157), newest first
| Date | Turned | SPY 1 month later | 3 months | 6 months | Lowest close within 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bullish | −1.1% | – | – | – |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Bullish | +5.1% | +3.8% | – | −0.3% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Bullish | +7.6% | +9.9% | +14.0% | +1.2% |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Bullish | +0.9% | −1.0% | +8.1% | −2.1% |
| Jul 10, 2025 | Bullish | +1.8% | +7.9% | +10.8% | −0.7% |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Bullish | +0.2% | +8.0% | +10.5% | −0.0% |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Bullish | +2.7% | +7.7% | +12.0% | −0.0% |
| May 12, 2025 | Bullish | +3.2% | +10.6% | +17.6% | −0.7% |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Bullish | +7.4% | +16.0% | +23.7% | +0.0% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Bullish | +8.9% | +18.8% | +25.4% | +2.1% |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Bearish | +11.3% | +24.1% | +33.4% | −1.6% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Bearish | −1.8% | +3.6% | +12.3% | −13.7% |
| Jan 28, 2025 | Bullish | −3.2% | −8.0% | +5.6% | −17.6% |
| Dec 2, 2024 | Bullish | −2.8% | −4.8% | −1.1% | −4.8% |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Bullish | +1.2% | +4.4% | −0.1% | −0.6% |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Bullish | +2.7% | +3.0% | +1.5% | −0.3% |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Bullish | +0.3% | +5.0% | +9.8% | −3.4% |
| Aug 5, 2024 | Bearish | +6.5% | +10.7% | +17.5% | +0.2% |
| Jul 15, 2024 | Bullish | −3.5% | +3.5% | +4.3% | −7.9% |
| May 14, 2024 | Bullish | +3.7% | +4.2% | +14.8% | −0.8% |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Bearish | +7.0% | +12.4% | +18.8% | +0.9% |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Bearish | +5.6% | +10.8% | +17.1% | −1.1% |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Bearish | +3.7% | +12.3% | +16.6% | −1.8% |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Bullish | −3.9% | +4.8% | +10.6% | −5.2% |
| Mar 6, 2024 | Bullish | +2.0% | +5.2% | +8.5% | −2.6% |
| Feb 1, 2024 | Bullish | +4.7% | +3.6% | +9.6% | +0.7% |
| Jan 29, 2024 | Bullish | +3.1% | +4.2% | +11.0% | −1.7% |
| Dec 18, 2023 | Bullish | +2.2% | +10.6% | +16.3% | −1.0% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Bullish | +1.4% | +9.1% | +16.2% | −0.3% |
| Nov 20, 2023 | Bullish | +3.5% | +12.2% | +17.5% | −0.2% |
| Nov 8, 2023 | Bullish | +5.2% | +15.1% | +20.0% | −0.8% |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Bullish | +5.0% | +14.1% | +19.8% | −0.2% |
| Oct 30, 2023 | Bearish | +9.4% | +16.7% | +21.3% | +0.6% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Bearish | +9.0% | +17.2% | +22.6% | −1.6% |
| Oct 3, 2023 | Bearish | +0.3% | +11.6% | +22.6% | −2.6% |
| Sep 22, 2023 | Bearish | −2.3% | +10.3% | +21.6% | −4.6% |
| Aug 31, 2023 | Bullish | −4.8% | +1.7% | +14.6% | −8.5% |
| Aug 17, 2023 | Bearish | +2.0% | +3.4% | +15.4% | −5.5% |
| Aug 15, 2023 | Bearish | +1.7% | −0.3% | +13.4% | −6.9% |
| Jul 20, 2023 | Bullish | −3.5% | −4.5% | +7.5% | −6.4% |
| Jul 11, 2023 | Bullish | +0.7% | −1.9% | +7.9% | −4.4% |
| Jun 8, 2023 | Bullish | +3.5% | +4.2% | +7.6% | +0.2% |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Bullish | +0.4% | +8.8% | +5.1% | −1.2% |
| Feb 7, 2023 | Bullish | −5.7% | −0.6% | +8.2% | −7.2% |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Bullish | −1.6% | −0.3% | +10.1% | −6.2% |
| Jan 20, 2023 | Bullish | +0.8% | +4.5% | +15.6% | −2.7% |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Bullish | +3.2% | +4.9% | +14.5% | −2.6% |
| Dec 27, 2022 | Bearish | +6.4% | +5.6% | +15.7% | −1.2% |
| Dec 22, 2022 | Bearish | +5.2% | +4.5% | +15.4% | −1.1% |
| Dec 16, 2022 | Bearish | +1.4% | +4.5% | +14.3% | −1.7% |
| Dec 2, 2022 | Bullish | −5.3% | −1.7% | +6.1% | −7.0% |
| Nov 23, 2022 | Bullish | −4.4% | −0.7% | +5.3% | −6.0% |
| Oct 25, 2022 | Bullish | +4.5% | +5.6% | +8.1% | −3.6% |
| Sep 22, 2022 | Bearish | +0.0% | +3.7% | +6.7% | −4.7% |
| Aug 29, 2022 | Bearish | −7.6% | −1.3% | −1.1% | −11.1% |
| Aug 12, 2022 | Bullish | −8.0% | −7.2% | −2.5% | −16.2% |
| Aug 5, 2022 | Bullish | −5.5% | −9.9% | −0.0% | −13.4% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Bullish | +4.6% | −3.6% | +1.8% | −10.7% |
| Jul 25, 2022 | Bullish | +4.2% | −5.0% | +2.1% | −9.5% |
| Jul 20, 2022 | Bullish | +8.4% | −5.6% | −0.7% | −9.3% |
| Jun 22, 2022 | Bearish | +5.5% | +1.2% | +2.5% | +0.8% |
| Jun 16, 2022 | Bearish | +7.4% | +6.0% | +7.2% | +0.2% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | Bearish | +1.2% | +5.3% | +7.3% | −2.2% |
| May 18, 2022 | Bearish | −6.2% | +9.7% | +1.8% | −6.4% |
| Apr 12, 2022 | Bearish | −10.5% | −13.4% | −18.0% | −16.3% |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Bullish | −4.9% | −13.0% | −17.6% | −18.6% |
| Mar 21, 2022 | Bullish | +0.1% | −15.2% | −12.8% | −17.5% |
| Feb 23, 2022 | Bearish | +7.1% | −6.4% | −1.2% | −7.4% |
| Feb 9, 2022 | Bullish | −8.2% | −13.9% | −7.5% | −13.9% |
| Jan 25, 2022 | Bearish | −1.4% | −3.9% | −7.0% | −4.2% |
| Jan 21, 2022 | Bearish | −1.9% | −2.4% | −9.0% | −5.0% |
| Jan 4, 2022 | Bullish | −6.5% | −5.3% | −17.9% | −12.8% |
| Dec 3, 2021 | Bearish | +5.7% | −7.2% | −8.6% | −7.2% |
| Dec 1, 2021 | Bearish | +5.8% | −2.9% | −6.7% | −6.0% |
| Oct 18, 2021 | Bullish | +4.9% | +2.4% | +0.2% | +0.7% |
| Sep 1, 2021 | Bullish | −3.6% | +0.0% | −2.9% | −4.8% |
| Jul 2, 2021 | Bullish | +1.7% | +0.4% | +10.3% | −2.0% |
| May 12, 2021 | Bearish | +4.7% | +9.8% | +16.0% | +1.2% |
| Apr 15, 2021 | Bullish | +0.2% | +4.9% | +5.3% | −2.5% |
| Apr 13, 2021 | Bullish | −1.8% | +5.9% | +6.0% | −1.8% |
| Apr 8, 2021 | Bullish | +3.3% | +5.8% | +7.2% | −0.8% |
| Feb 12, 2021 | Bullish | +0.8% | +6.4% | +14.3% | −4.1% |
| Jan 19, 2021 | Bullish | +3.2% | +9.2% | +14.6% | −2.3% |
| Jan 13, 2021 | Bullish | +3.4% | +9.9% | +15.2% | −2.6% |
| Jan 8, 2021 | Bullish | +2.4% | +8.3% | +15.4% | −2.9% |
| Dec 7, 2020 | Bullish | +3.2% | +6.0% | +15.1% | −1.2% |
| Nov 27, 2020 | Bullish | +2.6% | +6.7% | +16.3% | −0.4% |
| Nov 13, 2020 | Bullish | +3.2% | +10.0% | +15.9% | −0.8% |
| Nov 11, 2020 | Bullish | +2.7% | +10.6% | +17.7% | −1.0% |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Bullish | +2.8% | +11.7% | +21.7% | −4.2% |
| Oct 5, 2020 | Bullish | −1.1% | +9.8% | +20.6% | −3.9% |
| Aug 25, 2020 | Bullish | −5.6% | +4.3% | +12.0% | −5.9% |
| Jul 9, 2020 | Bullish | +6.4% | +8.8% | +21.6% | +0.1% |
| Jun 16, 2020 | Bullish | +3.0% | +9.2% | +17.5% | −3.7% |
| Jun 5, 2020 | Bullish | −1.3% | +8.6% | +15.8% | −5.9% |
| Jun 3, 2020 | Bullish | +0.5% | +13.4% | +18.2% | −3.7% |
| May 28, 2020 | Bullish | −0.5% | +15.2% | +20.9% | −0.8% |
| Apr 16, 2020 | Bullish | +2.6% | +15.4% | +25.7% | −2.2% |
| Mar 18, 2020 | Bearish | +20.2% | +30.7% | +42.7% | −6.5% |
| Mar 16, 2020 | Bearish | +16.5% | +28.8% | +42.6% | −6.5% |
| Feb 26, 2020 | Bearish | −15.6% | −2.0% | +11.6% | −28.0% |
| Feb 12, 2020 | Bullish | −20.2% | −16.0% | +1.1% | −33.5% |
| Jan 17, 2020 | Bullish | +1.9% | −14.6% | −1.3% | −32.4% |
| Jan 2, 2020 | Bullish | −0.2% | −22.0% | −2.9% | −31.0% |
| Dec 16, 2019 | Bullish | +4.1% | −24.5% | −1.4% | −24.6% |
| Oct 28, 2019 | Bullish | +3.6% | +8.2% | −2.3% | −0.0% |
| Oct 21, 2019 | Bullish | +4.0% | +11.0% | −5.9% | −0.3% |
| Oct 16, 2019 | Bullish | +3.7% | +11.4% | −2.9% | −0.1% |
| Oct 2, 2019 | Bearish | +5.3% | +13.3% | −11.6% | +0.2% |
| Sep 17, 2019 | Bullish | −0.4% | +6.7% | −19.5% | −3.8% |
| Sep 9, 2019 | Bullish | −2.8% | +6.1% | −2.4% | −3.0% |
| Aug 29, 2019 | Bullish | +1.9% | +8.3% | +6.7% | −1.1% |
| Aug 12, 2019 | Bearish | +4.2% | +7.7% | +17.5% | −1.5% |
| Aug 5, 2019 | Bearish | +3.6% | +8.4% | +17.0% | +0.0% |
| Jul 10, 2019 | Bullish | −1.7% | −2.9% | +9.7% | −5.0% |
| Jun 12, 2019 | Bullish | +4.8% | +4.6% | +9.8% | −1.1% |
| May 31, 2019 | Bearish | +7.9% | +6.8% | +15.7% | −0.3% |
| May 13, 2019 | Bearish | +2.7% | +3.1% | +11.0% | −2.2% |
| Apr 10, 2019 | Bullish | −0.1% | +4.3% | +2.0% | −4.8% |
| Apr 5, 2019 | Bullish | −0.2% | +3.4% | +3.0% | −4.9% |
| Mar 21, 2019 | Bullish | +1.9% | +3.9% | +6.3% | −3.6% |
| Feb 22, 2019 | Bullish | +0.4% | +1.5% | +5.7% | −1.7% |
| Feb 12, 2019 | Bullish | +2.6% | +3.8% | +7.7% | +0.1% |
| Feb 5, 2019 | Bullish | +0.7% | +5.9% | +6.4% | −1.1% |
| Jan 30, 2019 | Bullish | +4.8% | +9.5% | +12.2% | +0.9% |
| Jan 25, 2019 | Bullish | +5.1% | +10.9% | +14.7% | −0.9% |
| Jan 8, 2019 | Bullish | +5.2% | +12.4% | +17.4% | +0.2% |
| Jan 3, 2019 | Bearish | +11.4% | +18.1% | +23.3% | +3.3% |
| Dec 17, 2018 | Bearish | +3.6% | +11.4% | +16.0% | −7.7% |
| Nov 21, 2018 | Bearish | −11.0% | +6.0% | +6.8% | −11.0% |
| Nov 7, 2018 | Bullish | −6.0% | −3.1% | +1.0% | −16.1% |
| Oct 23, 2018 | Bearish | −3.1% | −2.3% | +8.3% | −13.8% |
| Oct 17, 2018 | Bearish | −2.6% | −4.4% | +4.6% | −15.9% |
| Oct 10, 2018 | Bearish | +0.8% | −6.4% | +5.3% | −15.3% |
| Aug 29, 2018 | Bullish | +0.2% | −5.4% | −3.1% | −9.3% |
| Aug 27, 2018 | Bullish | +0.5% | −7.3% | −2.8% | −8.7% |
| Jul 12, 2018 | Bullish | +1.4% | +0.1% | −6.3% | −0.0% |
| Jul 10, 2018 | Bullish | +2.4% | +3.7% | −6.5% | −0.7% |
| Jun 14, 2018 | Bullish | +0.7% | +4.8% | −3.9% | −2.9% |
| Jun 12, 2018 | Bullish | +0.6% | +4.1% | −4.4% | −3.0% |
| May 16, 2018 | Bullish | +2.3% | +4.0% | +0.8% | −1.2% |
| May 14, 2018 | Bullish | +1.8% | +3.8% | +2.7% | −1.5% |
| Apr 16, 2018 | Bullish | +1.4% | +5.0% | +4.2% | −1.8% |
| Apr 12, 2018 | Bullish | +2.6% | +5.5% | +5.6% | −1.2% |
| Apr 2, 2018 | Bearish | +2.9% | +5.8% | +13.9% | +0.9% |
| Mar 27, 2018 | Bearish | +2.2% | +4.7% | +12.6% | −1.2% |
| Mar 23, 2018 | Bearish | +1.9% | +6.9% | +14.2% | −0.2% |
| Mar 15, 2018 | Bullish | −2.4% | +1.8% | +6.7% | −6.0% |
| Feb 23, 2018 | Bullish | −3.1% | −0.3% | +4.9% | −5.9% |
| Feb 20, 2018 | Bullish | +0.0% | +1.1% | +6.2% | −4.8% |
| Feb 8, 2018 | Bearish | +8.1% | +6.0% | +11.6% | +0.3% |
| Feb 5, 2018 | Bearish | +3.4% | +1.5% | +8.8% | −2.4% |
| Jan 11, 2018 | Bullish | −3.9% | −3.6% | +2.1% | −6.7% |
| Jan 5, 2018 | Bullish | −1.6% | −4.2% | +2.5% | −5.8% |
| Dec 18, 2017 | Bullish | +4.6% | +1.2% | +3.8% | −3.9% |
| Nov 30, 2017 | Bullish | +1.9% | +3.2% | +4.7% | −2.3% |
| Oct 5, 2017 | Bullish | +1.5% | +7.9% | +3.4% | −0.3% |
Variants tested
The same measures for other common settings, so the result can be checked for luck: a rule that only works with one exact number is fragile. The highlighted row is the published rule.
| Variant | SPY or T-bills, a year | Worst fall | Days bearish | Bearish signals | Followed by a 5% fall | Bullish signals | SPY 3 months after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8 | 6.0% | −30.0% | 19% | 146 | 41% (57 of 138) | 235 | +3.8% |
| 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67 | 8.6% | −26.9% | 10% | 88 | 44% (39 of 88) | 175 | +3.6% |
| 5 days, 2 / 0.5 | 14.6% | −30.7% | 4% | 42 | 48% (20 of 42) | 77 | +4.2% |
| 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8 | 10.1% | −34.5% | 12% | 71 | 43% (30 of 70) | 154 | +4.0% |
| 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule) | 13.9% | −33.2% | 5% | 47 | 36% (17 of 47) | 110 | +3.2% |
| 10 days, 2 / 0.5 | 15.8% | −30.0% | 1% | 10 | 40% (4 of 10) | 15 | +5.2% |
| 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8 | 13.3% | −26.4% | 5% | 28 | 64% (18 of 28) | 103 | +2.6% |
| 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67 | 13.0% | −28.6% | 1% | 9 | 44% (4 of 9) | 32 | +1.9% |
| 21 days, 2 / 0.5 | 14.7% | −33.7% | 0% | 0 | – | 0 | – |
| SPY held throughout | 14.8% | −33.7% | – | – | 33% (any day) | – | +3.8% (any day) |
“SPY or T-bills”: SPY, switching to T-bills (BIL) at the next close after the rule turns bearish and back after it stops, 0.10% per switch, interest and dividends included. Hypothetical: no costs beyond that, no taxes.
Overlap with the other indicators
It agreed most often with Zweig breadth thrust (79% of days in the same state). An indicator that almost always agrees with another adds little to the score.
Agreement with every indicator
| Indicator | Same state |
|---|---|
| Zweig breadth thrust | 79% |
| Stocks above their 20-day average | 77% |
| 90% up and down days | 76% |
| Equal weight against SPY | 59% |
| Hindenburg Omen | 57% |
| McClellan Oscillator | 55% |
| Stocks beating SPY | 44% |
| Stocks above their 200-day average | 38% |
| Valuation | 38% |
| Sector breadth | 31% |
| New highs minus new lows | 21% |
| Advance-decline line | 17% |
| Small against large companies | 17% |
Research: what worked and what did not
The same test run many ways: the published rule year by year, every variant year by year, and grids over its settings. Return numbers are SPY-or-T-bills against SPY over the same days, in points; green means better than holding SPY, red worse.
Year by year
| Year | SPY | SPY or T-bills | Difference, points | SPY’s worst fall | Days bearish | Days bullish | Bearish signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017* | 6.8% | 6.8% | +0.0 difference in 2017 | −1.0% | 0% | 14% | 0 |
| 2018 | −4.6% | −10.1% | −5.6 difference in 2018 | −19.3% | 10% | 12% | 10 |
| 2019 | 31.2% | 27.4% | −3.8 difference in 2019 | −6.6% | 4% | 23% | 6 |
| 2020 | 18.4% | 51.5% | +33.1 difference in 2020 | −33.7% | 6% | 17% | 3 |
| 2021 | 28.7% | 24.6% | −4.2 difference in 2021 | −5.1% | 1% | 8% | 3 |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −29.9% | −11.7 difference in 2022 | −24.5% | 14% | 13% | 13 |
| 2023 | 26.2% | 25.6% | −0.6 difference in 2023 | −10.0% | 6% | 22% | 6 |
| 2024 | 24.9% | 25.2% | +0.3 difference in 2024 | −8.4% | 2% | 8% | 4 |
| 2025 | 17.7% | 13.0% | −4.7 difference in 2025 | −18.8% | 1% | 10% | 2 |
| 2026* | 12.8% | 12.8% | −0.0 difference in 2026 | −8.9% | 0% | 6% | 0 |
* Part of a year: Sep 29 to the end of 2017, and 2026 to Oct 16.
Every variant, year by year
Does a setting win steadily, or in one lucky year? Each square is that year’s difference from SPY.
| Variant | 2017* | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* | A year, whole period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8 | +0.1 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2017 | +1.5 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2018 | −4.6 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2019 | −5.8 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2020 | −19.5 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2021 | −9.8 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2022 | −0.0 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2023 | −19.8 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2024 | −10.1 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2025 | −11.0 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2026 | −8.9 5 days, 1.25 / 0.8, a year over the whole period |
| 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67 | +0.0 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2017 | −4.8 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2018 | −4.4 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2019 | −10.1 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2020 | −11.2 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2021 | −1.0 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2022 | −3.0 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2023 | −11.9 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2024 | −11.5 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2025 | −0.6 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2026 | −6.3 5 days, 1.5 / 0.67, a year over the whole period |
| 5 days, 2 / 0.5 | +0.0 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2017 | −0.7 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2018 | −6.7 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2019 | +12.6 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2020 | −1.3 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2021 | −7.8 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2022 | −0.4 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2023 | −0.1 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2024 | +6.2 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2025 | −0.0 5 days, 2 / 0.5, 2026 | −0.3 5 days, 2 / 0.5, a year over the whole period |
| 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8 | +0.0 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2017 | −0.8 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2018 | −18.2 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2019 | +15.7 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2020 | −20.2 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2021 | −6.3 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2022 | −0.3 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2023 | −6.5 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2024 | −3.9 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2025 | −0.5 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2026 | −4.7 10 days, 1.25 / 0.8, a year over the whole period |
| 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule) | +0.0 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2017, the site's rule | −5.6 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2018, the site's rule | −3.8 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2019, the site's rule | +33.1 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2020, the site's rule | −4.2 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2021, the site's rule | −11.7 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2022, the site's rule | −0.6 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2023, the site's rule | +0.3 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2024, the site's rule | −4.7 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2025, the site's rule | −0.0 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), 2026, the site's rule | −0.9 10 days, 1.5 / 0.67 (this site's rule), a year over the whole period, the site's rule |
| 10 days, 2 / 0.5 | +0.0 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2017 | −3.6 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2018 | −0.3 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2019 | +18.7 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2020 | +0.0 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2021 | −5.9 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2022 | −0.0 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2023 | −0.0 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2024 | +5.2 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2025 | +0.0 10 days, 2 / 0.5, 2026 | +1.0 10 days, 2 / 0.5, a year over the whole period |
| 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8 | +0.0 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2017 | −0.6 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2018 | −8.0 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2019 | +8.8 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2020 | −1.5 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2021 | −3.3 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2022 | −7.7 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2023 | −0.0 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2024 | +0.0 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2025 | +0.0 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, 2026 | −1.4 21 days, 1.25 / 0.8, a year over the whole period |
| 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67 | +0.0 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2017 | −1.9 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2018 | −2.5 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2019 | −1.3 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2020 | −0.0 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2021 | −6.3 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2022 | +0.0 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2023 | −0.0 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2024 | −0.0 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2025 | +0.0 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, 2026 | −1.7 21 days, 1.5 / 0.67, a year over the whole period |
| 21 days, 2 / 0.5 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2017 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2018 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2019 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2020 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2021 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2022 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2023 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2024 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2025 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, 2026 | +0.0 21 days, 2 / 0.5, a year over the whole period |
Colour: points of return that year against SPY.8 or more3 to 80.5 to 3−0.5 to 0.5−3 to −0.5−10 to −3below −10 the site’s rule
The settings, tested on a grid
Window and thresholds: return against SPY
Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. Rows: how many trading days of volume are added up; columns: the bullish and bearish ratios.
| Bullish / bearish at → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window ↓ | 1.25 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 0.67 | 2.0 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.9 | Average |
| 5 days | −8.9 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | −6.3 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67 | −0.3 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | −11.2 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | −6.7 |
| 10 days | −4.7 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | −0.9 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67, the site's rule | +1.0 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | −6.0 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | −2.7 |
| 21 days | −1.4 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | −1.7 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67 | +0.0 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | −7.8 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | −2.7 |
| 42 days | −0.8 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | +0.0 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67 | +0.0 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | −6.5 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | −1.8 |
| Average | −3.9 | −2.2 | +0.2 | −7.9 | |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
Window and thresholds: how much smaller the worst fall was
Each square: SPY's worst fall minus the strategy's, in points (green: it fell less). Rows: how many trading days of volume are added up; columns: the bullish and bearish ratios.
| Bullish / bearish at → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window ↓ | 1.25 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 0.67 | 2.0 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.9 | Average |
| 5 days | +3.7 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | +6.8 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67 | +3.0 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | +5.9 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | +4.8 |
| 10 days | −0.8 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | +0.5 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67, the site's rule | +3.7 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | +13.3 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | +4.2 |
| 21 days | +7.3 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | +5.1 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67 | +0.0 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | +3.5 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | +4.0 |
| 42 days | +4.0 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | +0.0 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67 | +0.0 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | −4.6 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | −0.2 |
| Average | +3.5 | +3.1 | +1.7 | +4.5 | |
Colour: points smaller worst fall than SPY's.10 or more5 to 101 to 5−1 to 1−5 to −1−10 to −5below −10 the site’s rule
Window and thresholds: SPY after the bullish days
Each square: SPY's average return over the next 63 trading days from the bullish days, minus its average from every day, in points (green: bullish days were followed by better than usual returns). Rows: how many trading days of volume are added up; columns: the bullish and bearish ratios.
| Bullish / bearish at → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window ↓ | 1.25 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 0.67 | 2.0 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.9 | Average |
| 5 days | −0.5 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | −0.6 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67 | +0.5 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | −0.5 Window 5 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | −0.3 |
| 10 days | −0.6 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | −0.8 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67, the site's rule | +0.5 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | −0.4 Window 10 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | −0.3 |
| 21 days | −0.8 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | −0.8 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67 | – Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | −0.9 Window 21 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | −0.8 |
| 42 days | −2.0 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 1.25 / 0.8 | +1.1 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 1.5 / 0.67 | – Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 2.0 / 0.5 | −1.1 Window 42 days, bullish / bearish at 1.1 / 0.9 | −0.7 |
| Average | −1.0 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −0.7 | |
Colour: points of SPY return over the next 63 days, bullish days against all days.3 or more1.5 to 30.5 to 1.5−0.5 to 0.5−1.5 to −0.5−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
The two halves of the history
The best settings found over the whole period, and how each did in 2017–2021 and in 2022–2026 on its own. A setting that only works in one half is fitted to the past.
| Setting | Whole period, a year | 2017–2021 | 2022–2026 | Worst fall smaller by | Ahead in both halves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The site's rule, but bullish above 2, bearish below 0.5 | +1.0 whole period | +3.0 2017 to 2021 | −0.7 2022 to 2026 | +3.7 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 42-day window | +0.0 whole period | +0.0 2017 to 2021 | +0.0 2022 to 2026 | +0.0 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 5-day window, bullish above 2, bearish below 0.5 | −0.3 whole period | +0.9 2017 to 2021 | −1.2 2022 to 2026 | +3.0 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 42-day window, bullish above 1.25, bearish below 0.8 | −0.8 whole period | +1.5 2017 to 2021 | −2.6 2022 to 2026 | +4.0 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 21-day window, bullish above 1.25, bearish below 0.8 | −1.4 whole period | −0.3 2017 to 2021 | −2.4 2022 to 2026 | +7.3 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 21-day window | −1.7 whole period | −1.4 2017 to 2021 | −1.9 2022 to 2026 | +5.1 worst fall | No |
| The site’s rule | −0.9 whole period, the site's rule | +3.5 2017 to 2021, the site's rule | −4.5 2022 to 2026, the site's rule | +0.5 worst fall, the site's rule | No |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
Summary: the settings that helped the most
- Best single setting tested: the site's rule, but bullish above 2, bearish below 0.5: +1.0 points a year over SPY (+3.0 in 2017–2021, −0.7 in 2022–2026), against −0.9 for the site’s rule. Found by looking at the results, so it is the most flattering number here, not a forecast.
- Window: 42 days did best on average (−1.8), 5 days worst (−6.7).
- Bullish / bearish at: 2.0 / 0.5 did best on average (+0.2), 1.1 / 0.9 worst (−7.9).
- Window (for the bullish days): 5 days did best on average (−0.3), 21 days worst (−0.8).
- Bullish / bearish at (for the bullish days): 2.0 / 0.5 did best on average (+0.5), 1.25 / 0.8 worst (−1.0).
- Choosing the best setting in advance: the setting with the best result in 2017–2021 (the site's rule, +3.5) scored −4.5 in 2022–2026, against −4.5 for the site’s rule; 9 of the 16 settings tested beat the rule in those later years.
The site keeps the rule it published, so its live record stays honest. The heat maps show which ingredients mattered across many settings; any one best square is partly luck, because the history holds only a handful of real declines.
Live record
The rule went live after the close of Oct 16, 2026. Every reading since was made by the daily run after that day’s close and is kept exactly as made; the newest few are corrected only if late price data changes them.
No live readings yet: the first comes after the next trading day.
Free · every Friday after the close
Know when the market’s underlying health changes
Every Friday, a two-minute report on market health, rising risk and the indicators that changed, without having to watch every chart yourself.
- The health score and the top-risk score, and how far each moved
- Every indicator that turned bullish or bearish, and why
- Whether breadth confirmed the S&P 500’s new highs
- The charts that matter, in under two minutes
From the same author
Bull Rhythm: momentum strategies, tracked live every trading day
Eight model stock portfolios built on 12-1 momentum, one of the most researched return factors in finance, run by fixed rules and measured against the S&P 500.
- Every holding and every trade published, with the reason in plain words
- The live record since go-live, next to a backtest since 2017
- The Bull Rhythm Weekly by email every Friday