Overview › Stock breadth
New highs minus new lows today
More stocks at 52-week highs than at lows, or the other way round, with the Titanic Syndrome marked. Updated after every US market close: new 52-week highs against new 52-week lows, with the Titanic Syndrome, with its exact rule and its record since 2017.
What it means now
New highs minus new lows is neutral today. Highs minus lows: +0.1% of stocks (10-day average). It was also neutral a week ago (-0.5%; now 0.1%). On days in this state since 2017, SPY returned +3.4% on average over the next three months, against +3.8% from any day. A description of the past, not a forecast.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Highs minus lows, % of stocks (average)
What do new highs and new lows show?
New highs show strength, new lows weakness. When lows start to outnumber highs, more stocks are breaking down than breaking out. The Titanic Syndrome, described by Bernie Schaeffer, is the special case where that happens while the index itself sits near a high.
How it is calculated
- Each day: stocks at a 52-week high minus stocks at a 52-week low, as a share of all US stocks over $5.
- Bullish when its 10-day average is above +0.5%, bearish below -0.5%, neutral between.
- Marked on the chart, not part of the rule: the Titanic Syndrome, a day when new lows outnumber new highs within 7 trading days of a 52-week high in SPY.
A standard setting, fixed before testing, not the best of the variants below. A state is decided from a day’s closing prices and published after that close.
How reliable has it been? Its record since Sep 29, 2017
Holding SPY, but T-bills while New highs minus new lows was bearish, would have returned 13.5% a year with a worst fall of −28.6%, against 14.8% a year and −33.7% for SPY held throughout. Of its bearish signals with three months of history after them, 12 of 20 (60%) were followed by a fall of 5% or more in SPY within three months, against 33% of all 2,211 days (neighbouring days overlap, so days are not independent events). After its 22 bullish signals SPY returned +3.3% on average over three months, against +3.8% from any day. It turned bearish ahead of 1 of the 5 declines of 10% or more in this period.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Highs minus lows, % of stocks (average)
The full record and research: every state, decline, signal, variant and setting tested
SPY after each state
| From | Days | SPY, next month (avg) | SPY, next 3 months (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish days | 326 | +1.9% | +4.8% |
| Neutral days | 148 | +1.0% | +3.4% |
| Bullish days | 1,800 | +1.2% | +3.6% |
| All days | 2,274 | +1.3% | +3.8% |
Averages over every day in that state; the periods overlap, so treat them as a description, not a forecast.
Every decline of 10% or more
| High | Low | Fall | Bearish by the high | Days bearish on the way down | A month after the low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2018 | Feb 8, 2018 | −10.1% | No | 0% | Bullish |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −19.3% | No | 71% | Bullish |
| Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −33.7% | No | 71% | Neutral |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −24.5% | Yes | 63% | Bullish |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −18.8% | No | 60% | Bullish |
“Bearish by the high”: bearish at some point from a month before SPY’s high to a week after it.
Every signal (43), newest first
| Date | Turned | SPY 1 month later | 3 months | 6 months | Lowest close within 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Bearish | – | – | – | – |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Bullish | +9.5% | +14.8% | +17.9% | +0.5% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Bearish | +8.6% | +15.1% | +19.9% | −2.6% |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Bullish | +1.5% | +1.3% | +12.2% | −1.2% |
| May 1, 2025 | Bullish | +6.1% | +11.7% | +22.4% | +0.1% |
| Apr 1, 2025 | Bearish | −0.4% | +10.9% | +19.8% | −11.5% |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Bullish | −2.9% | +8.8% | +17.4% | −12.4% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Bearish | −1.8% | +3.6% | +12.3% | −13.7% |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Bullish | +3.4% | −10.8% | +6.9% | −15.8% |
| Jan 6, 2025 | Bullish | +1.8% | −16.4% | +5.7% | −16.4% |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Bullish | +4.1% | +6.9% | +15.1% | −1.0% |
| Nov 10, 2023 | Bullish | +5.3% | +12.6% | +19.6% | −0.1% |
| Oct 23, 2023 | Bearish | +7.8% | +15.9% | +21.1% | −2.3% |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Bearish | +1.6% | +10.4% | +17.2% | −5.3% |
| Oct 3, 2023 | Bearish | +0.3% | +11.6% | +22.6% | −2.6% |
| Mar 24, 2023 | Bullish | +2.6% | +9.4% | +10.0% | −0.0% |
| Oct 25, 2022 | Bullish | +4.5% | +5.6% | +8.1% | −3.6% |
| Sep 1, 2022 | Bearish | −7.1% | +3.2% | +2.9% | −9.7% |
| Jul 28, 2022 | Bullish | −0.2% | −5.5% | +0.8% | −11.8% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | Bearish | +1.2% | +5.3% | +7.3% | −2.2% |
| Jun 8, 2022 | Bullish | −6.2% | −2.2% | −3.6% | −10.8% |
| Apr 26, 2022 | Bearish | −4.5% | −3.2% | −6.7% | −11.9% |
| Mar 25, 2022 | Bullish | −8.1% | −13.8% | −18.8% | −19.0% |
| Feb 18, 2022 | Bearish | +3.9% | −10.0% | −4.1% | −10.0% |
| Jan 19, 2022 | Bearish | −3.3% | −1.3% | −11.1% | −7.9% |
| Dec 29, 2021 | Bullish | −7.4% | −3.6% | −20.4% | −12.8% |
| Dec 20, 2021 | Bearish | −1.8% | −0.9% | −17.1% | −8.5% |
| Nov 30, 2021 | Bearish | +4.9% | −3.5% | −9.5% | −7.0% |
| Apr 24, 2020 | Bullish | +5.7% | +13.9% | +22.8% | −0.5% |
| Feb 28, 2020 | Bearish | −11.1% | +3.4% | +18.8% | −24.3% |
| Oct 16, 2019 | Bullish | +3.7% | +11.4% | −2.9% | −0.1% |
| Sep 9, 2019 | Bullish | −2.8% | +6.1% | −2.4% | −3.0% |
| Aug 9, 2019 | Bearish | +2.2% | +6.2% | +15.9% | −2.6% |
| Jun 12, 2019 | Bullish | +4.8% | +4.6% | +9.8% | −1.1% |
| May 29, 2019 | Bearish | +5.3% | +3.6% | +13.7% | −1.3% |
| May 21, 2019 | Bullish | +3.3% | +1.7% | +9.9% | −4.2% |
| Jan 16, 2019 | Bullish | +6.3% | +11.4% | +15.6% | +0.7% |
| Nov 19, 2018 | Bearish | −8.1% | +4.3% | +5.9% | −12.4% |
| Oct 9, 2018 | Bearish | −2.2% | −9.4% | +1.3% | −18.0% |
| Apr 11, 2018 | Bullish | +3.1% | +5.4% | +9.9% | −0.4% |
| Apr 2, 2018 | Bearish | +2.9% | +5.8% | +13.9% | +0.9% |
| Feb 23, 2018 | Bullish | −3.1% | −0.3% | +4.9% | −5.9% |
| Feb 9, 2018 | Bearish | +5.8% | +4.8% | +9.2% | −1.1% |
Variants tested
The same measures for other common settings, so the result can be checked for luck: a rule that only works with one exact number is fragile. The highlighted row is the published rule.
| Variant | SPY or T-bills, a year | Worst fall | Days bearish | Bearish signals | Followed by a 5% fall | Bullish signals | SPY 3 months after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day average, band 0.0 | 12.2% | −23.6% | 17% | 43 | 50% (20 of 40) | 42 | +3.3% |
| 5-day average, band 0.5 | 13.4% | −26.7% | 14% | 36 | 53% (18 of 34) | 44 | +4.4% |
| 5-day average, band 1.0 | 13.6% | −30.5% | 12% | 32 | 55% (17 of 31) | 51 | +4.5% |
| 10-day average, band 0.0 | 14.9% | −25.0% | 18% | 25 | 54% (13 of 24) | 25 | +2.9% |
| 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule) | 13.5% | −28.6% | 14% | 21 | 60% (12 of 20) | 22 | +3.3% |
| 10-day average, band 1.0 | 11.6% | −29.2% | 12% | 18 | 56% (10 of 18) | 27 | +5.7% |
| 21-day average, band 0.0 | 12.3% | −23.6% | 17% | 11 | 60% (6 of 10) | 10 | +3.7% |
| 21-day average, band 0.5 | 12.2% | −23.2% | 14% | 11 | 55% (6 of 11) | 14 | +1.8% |
| 21-day average, band 1.0 | 12.7% | −25.0% | 13% | 10 | 70% (7 of 10) | 17 | +2.7% |
| SPY held throughout | 14.8% | −33.7% | – | – | 33% (any day) | – | +3.8% (any day) |
“SPY or T-bills”: SPY, switching to T-bills (BIL) at the next close after the rule turns bearish and back after it stops, 0.10% per switch, interest and dividends included. Hypothetical: no costs beyond that, no taxes.
Overlap with the other indicators
It agreed most often with Advance-decline line (79% of days in the same state). An indicator that almost always agrees with another adds little to the score.
Agreement with every indicator
| Indicator | Same state |
|---|---|
| Advance-decline line | 79% |
| Sector breadth | 71% |
| Stocks above their 200-day average | 65% |
| Small against large companies | 58% |
| McClellan Oscillator | 31% |
| Equal weight against SPY | 30% |
| Stocks above their 20-day average | 28% |
| Up/down volume | 21% |
| Stocks beating SPY | 16% |
| Zweig breadth thrust | 14% |
| 90% up and down days | 12% |
| Hindenburg Omen | 9% |
| Valuation | 7% |
Research: what worked and what did not
The same test run many ways: the published rule year by year, every variant year by year, and grids over its settings. Return numbers are SPY-or-T-bills against SPY over the same days, in points; green means better than holding SPY, red worse.
Year by year
| Year | SPY | SPY or T-bills | Difference, points | SPY’s worst fall | Days bearish | Days bullish | Bearish signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017* | 6.8% | 6.8% | +0.0 difference in 2017 | −1.0% | 0% | 100% | 0 |
| 2018 | −4.6% | 0.3% | +4.8 difference in 2018 | −19.3% | 24% | 69% | 4 |
| 2019 | 31.2% | 20.2% | −11.0 difference in 2019 | −6.6% | 11% | 79% | 2 |
| 2020 | 18.4% | 29.1% | +10.7 difference in 2020 | −33.7% | 13% | 85% | 1 |
| 2021 | 28.7% | 22.8% | −6.0 difference in 2021 | −5.1% | 6% | 92% | 2 |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −23.5% | −5.4 difference in 2022 | −24.5% | 51% | 37% | 5 |
| 2023 | 26.2% | 18.4% | −7.8 difference in 2023 | −10.0% | 8% | 87% | 3 |
| 2024 | 24.9% | 24.9% | +0.0 difference in 2024 | −8.4% | 0% | 97% | 0 |
| 2025 | 17.7% | 23.5% | +5.8 difference in 2025 | −18.8% | 12% | 79% | 2 |
| 2026* | 12.8% | 10.7% | −2.2 difference in 2026 | −8.9% | 5% | 83% | 2 |
* Part of a year: Sep 29 to the end of 2017, and 2026 to Oct 16.
Every variant, year by year
Does a setting win steadily, or in one lucky year? Each square is that year’s difference from SPY.
| Variant | 2017* | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* | A year, whole period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day average, band 0.0 | +0.0 5-day average, band 0.0, 2017 | +7.3 5-day average, band 0.0, 2018 | −14.0 5-day average, band 0.0, 2019 | −4.2 5-day average, band 0.0, 2020 | −2.0 5-day average, band 0.0, 2021 | −1.1 5-day average, band 0.0, 2022 | −8.9 5-day average, band 0.0, 2023 | −6.4 5-day average, band 0.0, 2024 | −0.5 5-day average, band 0.0, 2025 | +2.6 5-day average, band 0.0, 2026 | −2.6 5-day average, band 0.0, a year over the whole period |
| 5-day average, band 0.5 | +0.0 5-day average, band 0.5, 2017 | +4.8 5-day average, band 0.5, 2018 | −9.5 5-day average, band 0.5, 2019 | +5.4 5-day average, band 0.5, 2020 | −1.5 5-day average, band 0.5, 2021 | −4.3 5-day average, band 0.5, 2022 | −8.0 5-day average, band 0.5, 2023 | −2.6 5-day average, band 0.5, 2024 | +3.7 5-day average, band 0.5, 2025 | −1.4 5-day average, band 0.5, 2026 | −1.5 5-day average, band 0.5, a year over the whole period |
| 5-day average, band 1.0 | +0.0 5-day average, band 1.0, 2017 | +5.3 5-day average, band 1.0, 2018 | −9.4 5-day average, band 1.0, 2019 | +7.5 5-day average, band 1.0, 2020 | −1.8 5-day average, band 1.0, 2021 | −8.3 5-day average, band 1.0, 2022 | −6.8 5-day average, band 1.0, 2023 | −2.3 5-day average, band 1.0, 2024 | +9.7 5-day average, band 1.0, 2025 | −2.5 5-day average, band 1.0, 2026 | −1.2 5-day average, band 1.0, a year over the whole period |
| 10-day average, band 0.0 | +0.0 10-day average, band 0.0, 2017 | +7.8 10-day average, band 0.0, 2018 | −13.9 10-day average, band 0.0, 2019 | +14.7 10-day average, band 0.0, 2020 | −6.4 10-day average, band 0.0, 2021 | −1.3 10-day average, band 0.0, 2022 | −8.1 10-day average, band 0.0, 2023 | +1.8 10-day average, band 0.0, 2024 | −1.0 10-day average, band 0.0, 2025 | +5.4 10-day average, band 0.0, 2026 | +0.0 10-day average, band 0.0, a year over the whole period |
| 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule) | +0.0 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2017, the site's rule | +4.8 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2018, the site's rule | −11.0 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2019, the site's rule | +10.7 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2020, the site's rule | −6.0 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2021, the site's rule | −5.4 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2022, the site's rule | −7.8 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2023, the site's rule | +0.0 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2024, the site's rule | +5.8 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2025, the site's rule | −2.2 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), 2026, the site's rule | −1.3 10-day average, band 0.5 (this site's rule), a year over the whole period, the site's rule |
| 10-day average, band 1.0 | +0.0 10-day average, band 1.0, 2017 | +2.7 10-day average, band 1.0, 2018 | −13.0 10-day average, band 1.0, 2019 | +8.4 10-day average, band 1.0, 2020 | −4.7 10-day average, band 1.0, 2021 | −6.8 10-day average, band 1.0, 2022 | −7.2 10-day average, band 1.0, 2023 | −0.0 10-day average, band 1.0, 2024 | −7.8 10-day average, band 1.0, 2025 | +0.0 10-day average, band 1.0, 2026 | −3.2 10-day average, band 1.0, a year over the whole period |
| 21-day average, band 0.0 | +0.0 21-day average, band 0.0, 2017 | +9.7 21-day average, band 0.0, 2018 | −19.6 21-day average, band 0.0, 2019 | −4.8 21-day average, band 0.0, 2020 | −2.9 21-day average, band 0.0, 2021 | −2.1 21-day average, band 0.0, 2022 | −4.7 21-day average, band 0.0, 2023 | −0.0 21-day average, band 0.0, 2024 | −1.5 21-day average, band 0.0, 2025 | +2.4 21-day average, band 0.0, 2026 | −2.3 21-day average, band 0.0, a year over the whole period |
| 21-day average, band 0.5 | +0.0 21-day average, band 0.5, 2017 | +9.1 21-day average, band 0.5, 2018 | −14.1 21-day average, band 0.5, 2019 | −5.7 21-day average, band 0.5, 2020 | −3.9 21-day average, band 0.5, 2021 | −0.9 21-day average, band 0.5, 2022 | −7.9 21-day average, band 0.5, 2023 | −0.0 21-day average, band 0.5, 2024 | −2.5 21-day average, band 0.5, 2025 | +0.0 21-day average, band 0.5, 2026 | −2.5 21-day average, band 0.5, a year over the whole period |
| 21-day average, band 1.0 | +0.0 21-day average, band 1.0, 2017 | +7.5 21-day average, band 1.0, 2018 | −11.6 21-day average, band 1.0, 2019 | −3.0 21-day average, band 1.0, 2020 | −2.6 21-day average, band 1.0, 2021 | −3.5 21-day average, band 1.0, 2022 | −6.4 21-day average, band 1.0, 2023 | −0.0 21-day average, band 1.0, 2024 | −0.2 21-day average, band 1.0, 2025 | +0.0 21-day average, band 1.0, 2026 | −2.0 21-day average, band 1.0, a year over the whole period |
The settings, tested on a grid
Smoothing and band: return against SPY
Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. Rows: how many days of highs minus lows are averaged; columns: bullish above +band, bearish below -band.
| Band (+/-) → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of the net ↓ | 0% | 0.5% | 1% | 2% | 3% | Average |
| 1 days | −3.1 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 0% | −1.9 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | −3.0 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 1% | −2.2 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 2% | +1.2 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 3% | −1.8 |
| 5 days | −2.6 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 0% | −1.5 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | −1.2 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 1% | −2.7 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 2% | −2.2 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 3% | −2.1 |
| 10 days | +0.0 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 0% | −1.3 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 0.5%, the site's rule | −3.2 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 1% | −4.1 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 2% | −0.4 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 3% | −1.8 |
| 21 days | −2.3 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 0% | −2.5 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | −2.0 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 1% | −1.6 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 2% | −2.6 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 3% | −2.2 |
| 42 days | −4.3 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 0% | −4.9 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | −7.0 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 1% | −6.4 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 2% | −3.4 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 3% | −5.2 |
| Average | −2.5 | −2.4 | −3.3 | −3.4 | −1.5 | |
Smoothing and band: how much smaller the worst fall was
Each square: SPY's worst fall minus the strategy's, in points (green: it fell less). Rows: how many days of highs minus lows are averaged; columns: bullish above +band, bearish below -band.
| Band (+/-) → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of the net ↓ | 0% | 0.5% | 1% | 2% | 3% | Average |
| 1 days | +11.9 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 0% | +10.7 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | +5.6 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 1% | +0.7 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 2% | +2.5 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 3% | +6.3 |
| 5 days | +10.1 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 0% | +7.0 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | +3.2 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 1% | −2.9 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 2% | −0.9 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 3% | +3.3 |
| 10 days | +8.7 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 0% | +5.1 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 0.5%, the site's rule | +4.5 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 1% | +0.5 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 2% | +7.8 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 3% | +5.3 |
| 21 days | +10.1 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 0% | +10.5 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | +8.7 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 1% | +8.5 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 2% | +1.8 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 3% | +7.9 |
| 42 days | +6.9 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 0% | +7.0 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | −4.6 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 1% | −3.2 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 2% | +4.6 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 3% | +2.1 |
| Average | +9.5 | +8.1 | +3.5 | +0.7 | +3.1 | |
Smoothing and band: SPY after the bullish days
Each square: SPY's average return over the next 63 trading days from the bullish days, minus its average from every day, in points (green: bullish days were followed by better than usual returns). Rows: how many days of highs minus lows are averaged; columns: bullish above +band, bearish below -band.
| Band (+/-) → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of the net ↓ | 0% | 0.5% | 1% | 2% | 3% | Average |
| 1 days | −0.2 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 0% | −0.3 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | −0.4 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 1% | −0.5 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 2% | −0.7 Average of the net 1 days, band (+/-) 3% | −0.4 |
| 5 days | −0.2 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 0% | −0.2 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | −0.3 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 1% | −0.6 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 2% | −0.6 Average of the net 5 days, band (+/-) 3% | −0.4 |
| 10 days | −0.1 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 0% | −0.2 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 0.5%, the site's rule | −0.3 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 1% | −0.6 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 2% | −0.7 Average of the net 10 days, band (+/-) 3% | −0.4 |
| 21 days | −0.3 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 0% | −0.2 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | −0.2 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 1% | −0.4 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 2% | −0.8 Average of the net 21 days, band (+/-) 3% | −0.4 |
| 42 days | −0.2 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 0% | −0.3 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 0.5% | −0.4 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 1% | −0.6 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 2% | −0.8 Average of the net 42 days, band (+/-) 3% | −0.5 |
| Average | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.7 | |
The two halves of the history
The best settings found over the whole period, and how each did in 2017–2021 and in 2022–2026 on its own. A setting that only works in one half is fitted to the past.
| Setting | Whole period, a year | 2017–2021 | 2022–2026 | Worst fall smaller by | Ahead in both halves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The site's rule, but 1-day average, band of 3% | +1.2 whole period | +7.3 2017 to 2021 | −3.8 2022 to 2026 | +2.5 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but band of 0% | +0.0 whole period | +0.9 2017 to 2021 | −0.7 2022 to 2026 | +8.7 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but band of 3% | −0.4 whole period | +3.2 2017 to 2021 | −3.3 2022 to 2026 | +7.8 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 5-day average, band of 1% | −1.2 whole period | +0.7 2017 to 2021 | −2.9 2022 to 2026 | +3.2 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 5-day average | −1.5 whole period | +0.2 2017 to 2021 | −2.9 2022 to 2026 | +7.0 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 21-day average, band of 2% | −1.6 whole period | +1.2 2017 to 2021 | −3.8 2022 to 2026 | +8.5 worst fall | No |
| The site’s rule | −1.3 whole period, the site's rule | +0.0 2017 to 2021, the site's rule | −2.4 2022 to 2026, the site's rule | +5.1 worst fall, the site's rule | No |
Summary: the settings that helped the most
- Best single setting tested: the site's rule, but 1-day average, band of 3%: +1.2 points a year over SPY (+7.3 in 2017–2021, −3.8 in 2022–2026), against −1.3 for the site’s rule. Found by looking at the results, so it is the most flattering number here, not a forecast.
- Average of the net: 1 days to 10 days (identical results) did best on average (−1.8), 42 days worst (−5.2).
- Band (+/-): 3% did best on average (−1.5), 2% worst (−3.4).
- Average of the net (for the bullish days): made little difference (averages within half a point).
- Band (+/-) (for the bullish days): 0% to 0.5% (identical results) did best on average (−0.2), 3% worst (−0.7).
- Choosing the best setting in advance: the setting with the best result in 2017–2021 (the site's rule, but 1-day average, band of 3%, +7.3) scored −3.8 in 2022–2026, against −2.4 for the site’s rule; 5 of the 25 settings tested beat the rule in those later years.
The site keeps the rule it published, so its live record stays honest. The heat maps show which ingredients mattered across many settings; any one best square is partly luck, because the history holds only a handful of real declines.
Live record
The rule went live after the close of Oct 16, 2026. Every reading since was made by the daily run after that day’s close and is kept exactly as made; the newest few are corrected only if late price data changes them.
No live readings yet: the first comes after the next trading day.
Free · every Friday after the close
Know when the market’s underlying health changes
Every Friday, a two-minute report on market health, rising risk and the indicators that changed, without having to watch every chart yourself.
- The health score and the top-risk score, and how far each moved
- Every indicator that turned bullish or bearish, and why
- Whether breadth confirmed the S&P 500’s new highs
- The charts that matter, in under two minutes
From the same author
Bull Rhythm: momentum strategies, tracked live every trading day
Eight model stock portfolios built on 12-1 momentum, one of the most researched return factors in finance, run by fixed rules and measured against the S&P 500.
- Every holding and every trade published, with the reason in plain words
- The live record since go-live, next to a backtest since 2017
- The Bull Rhythm Weekly by email every Friday