Overview › Stock breadth
Percent of stocks above their 200-day moving average
The share of stocks in a long-term uptrend, and in a short-term one. Updated after every US market close: the percentage of stocks above their 200-day and 50-day moving averages, with its exact rule and its record since 2017.
What it means now
Stocks above their 200-day average is neutral today. 51% of stocks above their 200-day average, 34% above the 50-day. It was also neutral a week ago (52.7%; now 50.9%). On days in this state since 2017, SPY returned +4.2% on average over the next three months, against +3.8% from any day. A description of the past, not a forecast.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- % above the 200-day average
- % above the 50-day average
What does the percent of stocks above the 200-day moving average show?
A stock above its 200-day average is, by a common definition, in a long-term uptrend. When most stocks are, the market's rise is broad; when the share falls while the index holds up, fewer stocks carry it.
How it is calculated
- The share of US stocks over $5 whose close is above their average close of the last 200 days.
- Bullish at 60.0% or more, bearish at 40.0% or less, neutral between.
A standard setting, fixed before testing, not the best of the variants below. A state is decided from a day’s closing prices and published after that close.
How reliable has it been? Its record since Sep 18, 2017
Holding SPY, but T-bills while Stocks above their 200-day average was bearish, would have returned 9.4% a year with a worst fall of −31.2%, against 14.8% a year and −33.7% for SPY held throughout. Of its bearish signals with three months of history after them, 18 of 28 (64%) were followed by a fall of 5% or more in SPY within three months, against 33% of all 2,220 days (neighbouring days overlap, so days are not independent events). After its 49 bullish signals SPY returned +2.6% on average over three months, against +3.8% from any day. It turned bearish ahead of 0 of the 5 declines of 10% or more in this period.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- % above the 200-day average
- % above the 50-day average
The full record and research: every state, decline, signal, variant and setting tested
SPY after each state
| From | Days | SPY, next month (avg) | SPY, next 3 months (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish days | 307 | +2.9% | +7.0% |
| Neutral days | 788 | +1.1% | +4.2% |
| Bullish days | 1,188 | +1.0% | +2.7% |
| All days | 2,283 | +1.3% | +3.8% |
Averages over every day in that state; the periods overlap, so treat them as a description, not a forecast.
Every decline of 10% or more
| High | Low | Fall | Bearish by the high | Days bearish on the way down | A month after the low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2018 | Feb 8, 2018 | −10.1% | No | 0% | Bullish |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −19.3% | No | 64% | Bearish |
| Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −33.7% | No | 71% | Bearish |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −24.5% | No | 65% | Neutral |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −18.8% | No | 14% | Neutral |
“Bearish by the high”: bearish at some point from a month before SPY’s high to a week after it.
Every signal (77), newest first
| Date | Turned | SPY 1 month later | 3 months | 6 months | Lowest close within 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Bullish | −1.0% | +2.4% | – | −4.2% |
| May 21, 2026 | Bullish | −1.0% | +3.4% | – | −2.3% |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Bullish | +8.2% | +11.5% | +15.6% | +0.5% |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Bullish | +2.6% | +1.9% | +12.7% | −0.5% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Bullish | +0.9% | +1.8% | +9.6% | −4.2% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Bullish | +0.2% | +2.3% | +6.6% | −1.8% |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Bullish | +3.0% | +4.9% | +6.2% | −1.6% |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Bullish | +1.9% | +6.2% | +6.2% | −1.4% |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Bullish | +1.5% | +7.0% | +9.6% | −1.1% |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Bullish | +2.5% | +6.2% | +10.9% | −1.0% |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Bullish | +2.0% | +8.6% | +12.2% | +0.2% |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Bullish | +0.2% | +8.0% | +10.5% | −0.0% |
| May 5, 2025 | Bearish | +5.8% | +11.8% | +22.0% | −0.8% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Bearish | +5.0% | +16.0% | +25.4% | −7.5% |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Bearish | −2.9% | +9.8% | +19.9% | −9.7% |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Bullish | +2.9% | −11.1% | +6.5% | −16.0% |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Bullish | +2.1% | −14.5% | +6.1% | −14.5% |
| Dec 24, 2024 | Bullish | +0.5% | −7.3% | +3.4% | −8.3% |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Bullish | +2.8% | −3.5% | +4.1% | −6.7% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | Bullish | +3.0% | +11.7% | +14.7% | +0.4% |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Bullish | +7.0% | +12.4% | +18.8% | +0.9% |
| Dec 1, 2023 | Bullish | +2.5% | +10.9% | +15.9% | −0.9% |
| Oct 23, 2023 | Bearish | +7.8% | +15.9% | +21.1% | −2.3% |
| Aug 29, 2023 | Bullish | −4.3% | +1.6% | +14.0% | −8.2% |
| Jun 27, 2023 | Bullish | +3.7% | −2.0% | +9.9% | −2.0% |
| Jun 6, 2023 | Bullish | +2.8% | +4.6% | +7.5% | −0.3% |
| Jan 10, 2023 | Bullish | +4.2% | +4.9% | +16.0% | −1.3% |
| Dec 12, 2022 | Bullish | −0.0% | −2.0% | +10.5% | −5.1% |
| Nov 30, 2022 | Bullish | −5.8% | −0.4% | +5.9% | −7.2% |
| Nov 22, 2022 | Bullish | −4.4% | −0.4% | +4.6% | −5.4% |
| Nov 15, 2022 | Bullish | −2.2% | +2.9% | +6.1% | −5.0% |
| Oct 20, 2022 | Bearish | +8.4% | +10.1% | +13.9% | +1.5% |
| Sep 15, 2022 | Bearish | −7.9% | +2.8% | +1.2% | −8.2% |
| Sep 13, 2022 | Bearish | −8.9% | +1.9% | −0.1% | −8.9% |
| Aug 30, 2022 | Bearish | −8.5% | −0.3% | +0.8% | −10.1% |
| Apr 22, 2022 | Bearish | −6.8% | −6.8% | −11.4% | −13.9% |
| Apr 11, 2022 | Bearish | −10.7% | −13.5% | −18.0% | −16.7% |
| Mar 4, 2022 | Bearish | +6.0% | −4.7% | −8.6% | −9.6% |
| Feb 28, 2022 | Bearish | +6.0% | −4.6% | −7.1% | −10.5% |
| Feb 18, 2022 | Bearish | +3.9% | −10.0% | −4.1% | −10.0% |
| Feb 11, 2022 | Bearish | −3.2% | −8.5% | −1.9% | −10.7% |
| Feb 3, 2022 | Bearish | −6.1% | −7.1% | −6.7% | −7.5% |
| Jan 21, 2022 | Bearish | −1.9% | −2.4% | −9.0% | −5.0% |
| Nov 5, 2021 | Bullish | −0.1% | −4.2% | −14.5% | −7.6% |
| Nov 3, 2021 | Bullish | −2.4% | −3.6% | −10.4% | −6.9% |
| Aug 27, 2021 | Bullish | −3.4% | +2.3% | −2.4% | −4.5% |
| Aug 24, 2021 | Bullish | −0.7% | +4.7% | −5.2% | −4.0% |
| Nov 3, 2020 | Bullish | +9.1% | +15.4% | +25.7% | +2.2% |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Bullish | +2.8% | +11.7% | +21.7% | −4.2% |
| Jul 9, 2020 | Bearish | +6.4% | +8.8% | +21.6% | +0.1% |
| Jul 7, 2020 | Bearish | +5.8% | +8.7% | +19.3% | +0.2% |
| Jul 1, 2020 | Bearish | +5.2% | +8.3% | +20.8% | +0.6% |
| Jun 24, 2020 | Bearish | +5.5% | +6.5% | +21.8% | −1.3% |
| Jun 22, 2020 | Bearish | +5.2% | +5.7% | +19.8% | −3.4% |
| Jun 11, 2020 | Bearish | +5.2% | +11.6% | +23.1% | +0.3% |
| Mar 5, 2020 | Bearish | −17.4% | +3.6% | +19.5% | −25.8% |
| Feb 27, 2020 | Bearish | −14.3% | +2.5% | +18.1% | −24.6% |
| Feb 3, 2020 | Bullish | −3.5% | −12.0% | +2.5% | −30.8% |
| Nov 1, 2019 | Bullish | +1.1% | +8.0% | −5.5% | +0.3% |
| Oct 28, 2019 | Bullish | +3.6% | +8.2% | −2.3% | −0.0% |
| Sep 25, 2019 | Bullish | +0.9% | +8.5% | −11.3% | −3.2% |
| Sep 11, 2019 | Bullish | −1.9% | +4.9% | −16.6% | −3.6% |
| Jul 23, 2019 | Bullish | −2.5% | +0.5% | +11.5% | −5.4% |
| Jul 18, 2019 | Bullish | −3.3% | +0.3% | +11.8% | −5.0% |
| Jul 3, 2019 | Bullish | −2.1% | −3.1% | +9.8% | −5.0% |
| Jun 28, 2019 | Bullish | +2.6% | +1.3% | +11.2% | −3.1% |
| May 3, 2019 | Bullish | −4.6% | +0.0% | +4.1% | −6.6% |
| Dec 4, 2018 | Bearish | −5.3% | +2.2% | +7.5% | −12.8% |
| Nov 12, 2018 | Bearish | −2.6% | +1.3% | +6.6% | −13.5% |
| Oct 19, 2018 | Bearish | −2.6% | −4.1% | +6.9% | −14.7% |
| Oct 11, 2018 | Bearish | +2.1% | −4.9% | +7.6% | −13.4% |
| May 9, 2018 | Bullish | +3.2% | +6.4% | +3.0% | −0.2% |
| Apr 17, 2018 | Bullish | +0.8% | +4.3% | +2.5% | −2.8% |
| Mar 6, 2018 | Bullish | −2.3% | +1.2% | +7.1% | −5.3% |
| Feb 23, 2018 | Bullish | −3.1% | −0.3% | +4.9% | −5.9% |
| Feb 14, 2018 | Bullish | +2.1% | +1.4% | +5.4% | −4.1% |
| Feb 6, 2018 | Bullish | +1.8% | −0.4% | +7.0% | −4.3% |
Variants tested
The same measures for other common settings, so the result can be checked for luck: a rule that only works with one exact number is fragile. The highlighted row is the published rule.
| Variant | SPY or T-bills, a year | Worst fall | Days bearish | Bearish signals | Followed by a 5% fall | Bullish signals | SPY 3 months after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% line | 10.8% | −16.0% | 25% | 32 | 32% (10 of 31) | 32 | +5.1% |
| 55% / 45% | 11.5% | −19.5% | 18% | 26 | 58% (15 of 26) | 45 | +5.8% |
| 60% / 40% (this site's rule) | 9.4% | −31.2% | 13% | 28 | 64% (18 of 28) | 49 | +2.6% |
| 65% / 35% | 9.5% | −37.7% | 8% | 16 | 75% (12 of 16) | 55 | +3.0% |
| 70% / 30% | 12.7% | −31.5% | 6% | 8 | 62% (5 of 8) | 34 | +2.7% |
| 50-day average, 60% / 40% | 11.2% | −30.1% | 19% | 62 | 39% (23 of 59) | 87 | +4.4% |
| SPY held throughout | 14.8% | −33.7% | – | – | 33% (any day) | – | +3.8% (any day) |
“SPY or T-bills”: SPY, switching to T-bills (BIL) at the next close after the rule turns bearish and back after it stops, 0.10% per switch, interest and dividends included. Hypothetical: no costs beyond that, no taxes.
Overlap with the other indicators
It agreed most often with Sector breadth (87% of days in the same state). An indicator that almost always agrees with another adds little to the score.
Agreement with every indicator
| Indicator | Same state |
|---|---|
| Sector breadth | 87% |
| New highs minus new lows | 65% |
| Advance-decline line | 55% |
| Small against large companies | 45% |
| Stocks above their 20-day average | 41% |
| Up/down volume | 38% |
| Equal weight against SPY | 37% |
| 90% up and down days | 34% |
| Zweig breadth thrust | 32% |
| McClellan Oscillator | 32% |
| Stocks beating SPY | 26% |
| Hindenburg Omen | 25% |
| Valuation | 19% |
Research: what worked and what did not
The same test run many ways: the published rule year by year, every variant year by year, and grids over its settings. Return numbers are SPY-or-T-bills against SPY over the same days, in points; green means better than holding SPY, red worse.
Year by year
| Year | SPY | SPY or T-bills | Difference, points | SPY’s worst fall | Days bearish | Days bullish | Bearish signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017* | 7.4% | 7.4% | +0.0 difference in 2017 | −1.0% | 0% | 100% | 0 |
| 2018 | −4.6% | −1.0% | +3.6 difference in 2018 | −19.3% | 18% | 59% | 4 |
| 2019 | 31.2% | 20.7% | −10.5 difference in 2019 | −6.6% | 8% | 29% | 0 |
| 2020 | 18.4% | 5.1% | −13.2 difference in 2020 | −33.7% | 31% | 36% | 8 |
| 2021 | 28.7% | 28.7% | −0.0 difference in 2021 | −5.1% | 0% | 68% | 0 |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −28.3% | −10.1 difference in 2022 | −24.5% | 52% | 4% | 12 |
| 2023 | 26.2% | 24.1% | −2.1 difference in 2023 | −10.0% | 3% | 45% | 1 |
| 2024 | 24.9% | 24.9% | −0.0 difference in 2024 | −8.4% | 0% | 96% | 0 |
| 2025 | 17.7% | 3.5% | −14.2 difference in 2025 | −18.8% | 10% | 49% | 3 |
| 2026* | 12.8% | 12.8% | +0.0 difference in 2026 | −8.9% | 0% | 73% | 0 |
* Part of a year: Sep 18 to the end of 2017, and 2026 to Oct 16.
Every variant, year by year
Does a setting win steadily, or in one lucky year? Each square is that year’s difference from SPY.
| Variant | 2017* | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* | A year, whole period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% line | +0.0 50% line, 2017 | +8.3 50% line, 2018 | −27.7 50% line, 2019 | −11.0 50% line, 2020 | −11.1 50% line, 2021 | +9.1 50% line, 2022 | −6.3 50% line, 2023 | −0.0 50% line, 2024 | −5.6 50% line, 2025 | +1.2 50% line, 2026 | −4.0 50% line, a year over the whole period |
| 55% / 45% | +0.0 55% / 45%, 2017 | +6.6 55% / 45%, 2018 | −17.9 55% / 45%, 2019 | −19.0 55% / 45%, 2020 | −0.7 55% / 45%, 2021 | +7.0 55% / 45%, 2022 | −4.3 55% / 45%, 2023 | +0.0 55% / 45%, 2024 | −5.9 55% / 45%, 2025 | +0.0 55% / 45%, 2026 | −3.3 55% / 45%, a year over the whole period |
| 60% / 40% (this site's rule) | +0.0 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2017, the site's rule | +3.6 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2018, the site's rule | −10.5 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2019, the site's rule | −13.2 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2020, the site's rule | −0.0 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2021, the site's rule | −10.1 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2022, the site's rule | −2.1 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2023, the site's rule | −0.0 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2024, the site's rule | −14.2 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2025, the site's rule | +0.0 60% / 40% (this site's rule), 2026, the site's rule | −5.5 60% / 40% (this site's rule), a year over the whole period, the site's rule |
| 65% / 35% | +0.0 65% / 35%, 2017 | +1.4 65% / 35%, 2018 | −10.0 65% / 35%, 2019 | −10.6 65% / 35%, 2020 | −0.0 65% / 35%, 2021 | −14.3 65% / 35%, 2022 | +0.0 65% / 35%, 2023 | −0.0 65% / 35%, 2024 | −9.7 65% / 35%, 2025 | +0.0 65% / 35%, 2026 | −5.4 65% / 35%, a year over the whole period |
| 70% / 30% | +0.0 70% / 30%, 2017 | +4.8 70% / 30%, 2018 | −6.5 70% / 30%, 2019 | −1.8 70% / 30%, 2020 | −0.0 70% / 30%, 2021 | −7.6 70% / 30%, 2022 | −0.0 70% / 30%, 2023 | −0.0 70% / 30%, 2024 | −6.8 70% / 30%, 2025 | +0.0 70% / 30%, 2026 | −2.2 70% / 30%, a year over the whole period |
| 50-day average, 60% / 40% | +0.0 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2017 | +7.1 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2018 | −16.0 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2019 | +8.1 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2020 | −18.0 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2021 | −5.2 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2022 | −7.6 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2023 | −4.0 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2024 | +0.4 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2025 | +1.1 50-day average, 60% / 40%, 2026 | −3.6 50-day average, 60% / 40%, a year over the whole period |
The settings, tested on a grid
Bearish cut-off and waiting: return against SPY
Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. Rows: the share of stocks above the 200-day average at or below which it is bearish. Columns: how many trading days in a row a new state must hold before it counts (the usual way to cut false signals; the site's rule does not wait).
| Wait → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish at ↓ | No wait | 2 days | 3 days | 5 days | 10 days | Average |
| 25% or less | −2.0 Bearish at 25% or less, wait No wait | −3.1 Bearish at 25% or less, wait 2 days | −3.7 Bearish at 25% or less, wait 3 days | −4.1 Bearish at 25% or less, wait 5 days | −4.6 Bearish at 25% or less, wait 10 days | −3.5 |
| 30% or less | −2.2 Bearish at 30% or less, wait No wait | −3.6 Bearish at 30% or less, wait 2 days | −3.9 Bearish at 30% or less, wait 3 days | −5.5 Bearish at 30% or less, wait 5 days | −7.3 Bearish at 30% or less, wait 10 days | −4.5 |
| 35% or less | −5.4 Bearish at 35% or less, wait No wait | −3.8 Bearish at 35% or less, wait 2 days | −4.7 Bearish at 35% or less, wait 3 days | −3.9 Bearish at 35% or less, wait 5 days | −7.2 Bearish at 35% or less, wait 10 days | −5.0 |
| 40% or less | −5.5 Bearish at 40% or less, wait No wait, the site's rule | −5.6 Bearish at 40% or less, wait 2 days | −5.2 Bearish at 40% or less, wait 3 days | −5.9 Bearish at 40% or less, wait 5 days | −6.1 Bearish at 40% or less, wait 10 days | −5.7 |
| 45% or less | −3.3 Bearish at 45% or less, wait No wait | −2.5 Bearish at 45% or less, wait 2 days | −3.0 Bearish at 45% or less, wait 3 days | −4.3 Bearish at 45% or less, wait 5 days | −4.1 Bearish at 45% or less, wait 10 days | −3.4 |
| 50% or less | −4.0 Bearish at 50% or less, wait No wait | −5.4 Bearish at 50% or less, wait 2 days | −4.4 Bearish at 50% or less, wait 3 days | −4.5 Bearish at 50% or less, wait 5 days | −3.2 Bearish at 50% or less, wait 10 days | −4.3 |
| Average | −3.7 | −4.0 | −4.1 | −4.7 | −5.4 | |
Bearish cut-off and waiting: how much smaller the worst fall was
Each square: SPY's worst fall minus the strategy's, in points (green: it fell less). Rows: the share of stocks above the 200-day average at or below which it is bearish. Columns: how many trading days in a row a new state must hold before it counts (the usual way to cut false signals; the site's rule does not wait).
| Wait → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish at ↓ | No wait | 2 days | 3 days | 5 days | 10 days | Average |
| 25% or less | +4.1 Bearish at 25% or less, wait No wait | +6.5 Bearish at 25% or less, wait 2 days | +2.5 Bearish at 25% or less, wait 3 days | +4.4 Bearish at 25% or less, wait 5 days | −1.0 Bearish at 25% or less, wait 10 days | +3.3 |
| 30% or less | +2.2 Bearish at 30% or less, wait No wait | +1.4 Bearish at 30% or less, wait 2 days | +0.7 Bearish at 30% or less, wait 3 days | −1.0 Bearish at 30% or less, wait 5 days | −2.4 Bearish at 30% or less, wait 10 days | +0.2 |
| 35% or less | −4.0 Bearish at 35% or less, wait No wait | +4.7 Bearish at 35% or less, wait 2 days | +7.6 Bearish at 35% or less, wait 3 days | +5.8 Bearish at 35% or less, wait 5 days | −2.7 Bearish at 35% or less, wait 10 days | +2.3 |
| 40% or less | +2.5 Bearish at 40% or less, wait No wait, the site's rule | +5.0 Bearish at 40% or less, wait 2 days | +9.1 Bearish at 40% or less, wait 3 days | +2.7 Bearish at 40% or less, wait 5 days | +4.6 Bearish at 40% or less, wait 10 days | +4.8 |
| 45% or less | +14.2 Bearish at 45% or less, wait No wait | +18.0 Bearish at 45% or less, wait 2 days | +17.3 Bearish at 45% or less, wait 3 days | +11.6 Bearish at 45% or less, wait 5 days | +6.3 Bearish at 45% or less, wait 10 days | +13.5 |
| 50% or less | +17.7 Bearish at 50% or less, wait No wait | +16.5 Bearish at 50% or less, wait 2 days | +15.6 Bearish at 50% or less, wait 3 days | +18.3 Bearish at 50% or less, wait 5 days | +14.8 Bearish at 50% or less, wait 10 days | +16.6 |
| Average | +6.1 | +8.7 | +8.8 | +7.0 | +3.3 | |
Bullish cut-off: SPY after the bullish days
Each square: SPY's average return over the next 63 trading days from the bullish days, minus its average from every day, in points (green: bullish days were followed by better than usual returns). Rows: the share at or above which it is bullish; columns: the 200-day or the 50-day average.
| Average → | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish at ↓ | 200-day | 50-day | Average |
| 50% or more | −0.5 Bullish at 50% or more, average 200-day | −0.6 Bullish at 50% or more, average 50-day | −0.5 |
| 55% or more | −0.9 Bullish at 55% or more, average 200-day | −0.4 Bullish at 55% or more, average 50-day | −0.7 |
| 60% or more | −1.1 Bullish at 60% or more, average 200-day, the site's rule | −0.4 Bullish at 60% or more, average 50-day | −0.8 |
| 65% or more | −1.1 Bullish at 65% or more, average 200-day | −0.4 Bullish at 65% or more, average 50-day | −0.7 |
| 70% or more | −0.6 Bullish at 70% or more, average 200-day | −0.5 Bullish at 70% or more, average 50-day | −0.6 |
| 75% or more | +2.5 Bullish at 75% or more, average 200-day | +0.5 Bullish at 75% or more, average 50-day | +1.5 |
| Average | −0.3 | −0.3 | |
Bearish cut-off: the 200-day or the 50-day average
Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. Rows: the bearish cut-off; columns: which average the stocks are compared with.
| Average → | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish at ↓ | 200-day | 50-day | Average |
| 25% or less | −2.0 Bearish at 25% or less, average 200-day | −2.6 Bearish at 25% or less, average 50-day | −2.3 |
| 30% or less | −2.2 Bearish at 30% or less, average 200-day | −6.0 Bearish at 30% or less, average 50-day | −4.1 |
| 35% or less | −5.4 Bearish at 35% or less, average 200-day | −4.7 Bearish at 35% or less, average 50-day | −5.0 |
| 40% or less | −5.5 Bearish at 40% or less, average 200-day, the site's rule | −3.6 Bearish at 40% or less, average 50-day | −4.5 |
| 45% or less | −3.3 Bearish at 45% or less, average 200-day | −3.4 Bearish at 45% or less, average 50-day | −3.3 |
| 50% or less | −4.0 Bearish at 50% or less, average 200-day | −4.5 Bearish at 50% or less, average 50-day | −4.3 |
| Average | −3.7 | −4.1 | |
The two halves of the history
The best settings found over the whole period, and how each did in 2017–2021 and in 2022–2026 on its own. A setting that only works in one half is fitted to the past.
| Setting | Whole period, a year | 2017–2021 | 2022–2026 | Worst fall smaller by | Ahead in both halves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The site's rule, but bearish at 25% or less | −2.0 whole period | −1.1 2017 to 2021 | −2.8 2022 to 2026 | +4.1 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but bearish at 30% or less | −2.2 whole period | −0.4 2017 to 2021 | −3.6 2022 to 2026 | +2.2 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but bearish at 45% or less, waiting 2 days | −2.5 whole period | −4.3 2017 to 2021 | −1.0 2022 to 2026 | +18.0 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but the 50-day average, bearish at 25% or less | −2.6 whole period | −0.3 2017 to 2021 | −4.6 2022 to 2026 | −1.0 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but bearish at 45% or less, waiting 3 days | −3.0 whole period | −5.3 2017 to 2021 | −1.0 2022 to 2026 | +17.3 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but bearish at 25% or less, waiting 2 days | −3.1 whole period | −3.7 2017 to 2021 | −2.7 2022 to 2026 | +6.5 worst fall | No |
| The site’s rule | −5.5 whole period, the site's rule | −4.5 2017 to 2021, the site's rule | −6.3 2022 to 2026, the site's rule | +2.5 worst fall, the site's rule | No |
Summary: the settings that helped the most
- Best single setting tested: the site's rule, but bearish at 25% or less: −2.0 points a year over SPY (−1.1 in 2017–2021, −2.8 in 2022–2026), against −5.5 for the site’s rule. Found by looking at the results, so it is the most flattering number here, not a forecast.
- Bearish at: 45% or less did best on average (−3.4), 40% or less worst (−5.7).
- Wait: No wait did best on average (−3.7), 10 days worst (−5.4).
- Bullish at (for the bullish days): 75% or more did best on average (+1.5), 60% or more worst (−0.8).
- Average (for the bullish days): made little difference (averages within half a point).
- Average: made little difference (averages within half a point).
- Choosing the best setting in advance: the setting with the best result in 2017–2021 (the site's rule, but the 50-day average, bearish at 25% or less, −0.3) scored −4.6 in 2022–2026, against −6.3 for the site’s rule; 44 of the 52 settings tested beat the rule in those later years.
The site keeps the rule it published, so its live record stays honest. The heat maps show which ingredients mattered across many settings; any one best square is partly luck, because the history holds only a handful of real declines.
Live record
The rule went live after the close of Oct 16, 2026. Every reading since was made by the daily run after that day’s close and is kept exactly as made; the newest few are corrected only if late price data changes them.
No live readings yet: the first comes after the next trading day.
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