Overview › Stock breadth
Hindenburg Omen today
Many stocks making new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows on the same day: a split market. Updated after every US market close: the Hindenburg Omen stock market crash signal, with its exact rule and its record since 2017.
NowBearishsince Oct 13, 2026
Reading, Oct 16, 20262.7% of stocks at 52-week highs, 2.9% at lows. Last fired Oct 13, 2026.
Live sinceOct 16, 2026readings after this day are the live record
Backtest fromSep 18, 20172,283 trading days
What it means now
Hindenburg Omen is bearish today. 2.7% of stocks at 52-week highs, 2.9% at lows. Last fired Oct 13, 2026. A week ago it was neutral (2.5%; now 2.7%). On days in this state since 2017, SPY returned +1.5% on average over the next three months, against +3.8% from any day. Bearish signals were followed by a fall of 5% or more within three months 50% of the time (8 of 16), against 33% of all days. A description of the past, not a forecast.
- SPY
- Bearish
- % of stocks at a 52-week high
- % at a 52-week low
What is the Hindenburg Omen?
Named after the Hindenburg airship disaster, the Omen looks for a market pulling in two directions at once: many stocks reaching new highs while many others sink to new lows. In a healthy rise most stocks move together; a split like this has shown up before several large declines, and also many times when nothing followed.
This version adds two checks to the classic one: the split must also show among larger companies, and across several sectors, so a split made by small companies or by one corner of the market does not count.
How it is calculated
- Count the US common stocks and ADRs over $5 (not over the counter) closing at a 52-week high, and those at a 52-week low. The signal fires when more than 2.5% of them are at new highs and more than 2.5% at new lows on the same day, with SPY above its 50-day average.
- The split must also show among companies worth more than $300 million: more than 3.0% of them at new highs and more than 2.0% at new lows.
- And in at least 3 sectors at each end: a sector counts when more than 2.0% of its stocks (20 or more stocks) are at new highs, or at new lows.
- Bearish from the day it fires until 30 trading days after the last firing. It is never bullish.
A standard setting, fixed before testing, not the best of the variants below. A state is decided from a day’s closing prices and published after that close.
How reliable has it been? Its record since Sep 18, 2017
Holding SPY, but T-bills while Hindenburg Omen was bearish, would have returned 18.6% a year with a worst fall of −17.1%, against 14.8% a year and −33.7% for SPY held throughout. Of its bearish signals with three months of history after them, 8 of 16 (50%) were followed by a fall of 5% or more in SPY within three months, against 33% of all 2,220 days (neighbouring days overlap, so days are not independent events). It turned bearish ahead of 5 of the 5 declines of 10% or more in this period.
- SPY
- Bearish
- % of stocks at a 52-week high
- % at a 52-week low
The full record and research: every state, decline, signal, variant and setting tested
SPY after each state
| From | Days | SPY, next month (avg) | SPY, next 3 months (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish days | 721 | −0.4% | +1.5% |
| Neutral days | 1,562 | +2.1% | +4.9% |
| All days | 2,283 | +1.3% | +3.8% |
Averages over every day in that state; the periods overlap, so treat them as a description, not a forecast.
Every decline of 10% or more
| High | Low | Fall | Bearish by the high | Days bearish on the way down | A month after the low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2018 | Feb 8, 2018 | −10.1% | Yes | 0% | Neutral |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −19.3% | Yes | 58% | Neutral |
| Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −33.7% | Yes | 83% | Neutral |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −24.5% | Yes | 34% | Bearish |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −18.8% | Yes | 77% | Neutral |
“Bearish by the high”: bearish at some point from a month before SPY’s high to a week after it.
Every signal (17), newest first
| Date | Turned | SPY 1 month later | 3 months | 6 months | Lowest close within 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Bearish | – | – | – | – |
| May 11, 2026 | Bearish | −1.9% | +4.5% | – | −1.9% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Bearish | −1.2% | +5.3% | +12.2% | −8.1% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Bearish | −0.6% | +1.0% | +5.4% | −5.1% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Bearish | +2.1% | +9.1% | +10.1% | −1.6% |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Bearish | −7.5% | −5.8% | +6.5% | −17.1% |
| Nov 18, 2024 | Bearish | −0.3% | +2.3% | −0.2% | −1.0% |
| Jun 18, 2024 | Bearish | +0.4% | +2.7% | +10.9% | −5.4% |
| Nov 10, 2023 | Bearish | +5.3% | +12.6% | +19.6% | −0.1% |
| Apr 12, 2023 | Bearish | +1.0% | +10.6% | +7.7% | −0.9% |
| Nov 7, 2022 | Bearish | +3.5% | +8.6% | +9.6% | −1.5% |
| Apr 8, 2022 | Bearish | −10.8% | −14.5% | −18.9% | −18.1% |
| Nov 18, 2021 | Bearish | −2.8% | −7.2% | −16.5% | −7.9% |
| Jan 29, 2020 | Bearish | −9.3% | −9.7% | +0.6% | −31.3% |
| Jul 22, 2019 | Bearish | −2.6% | +0.5% | +12.3% | −4.7% |
| Aug 15, 2018 | Bearish | +3.2% | −3.0% | −0.5% | −5.9% |
| Nov 7, 2017 | Bearish | +2.1% | +0.1% | +6.1% | −0.9% |
Variants tested
The same measures for other common settings, so the result can be checked for luck: a rule that only works with one exact number is fragile. The highlighted row is the published rule.
| Variant | SPY or T-bills, a year | Worst fall | Days bearish | Bearish signals | Followed by a 5% fall | Bullish signals | SPY 3 months after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This site's rule | 18.6% | −17.1% | 32% | 17 | 50% (8 of 16) | 0 | – |
| Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day | 15.8% | −19.0% | 37% | 16 | 33% (5 of 15) | 0 | – |
| Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows | 17.1% | −19.5% | 27% | 13 | 33% (4 of 12) | 0 | – |
| 2.0% each way | 17.0% | −16.9% | 44% | 22 | 43% (9 of 21) | 0 | – |
| 3.0% each way | 17.3% | −33.7% | 21% | 13 | 75% (9 of 12) | 0 | – |
| Large companies 2.0% at new highs | 17.5% | −19.0% | 34% | 16 | 33% (5 of 15) | 0 | – |
| No sector check | 17.7% | −17.1% | 33% | 17 | 50% (8 of 16) | 0 | – |
| Warning lasts 20 days | 16.2% | −26.8% | 24% | 20 | 47% (9 of 19) | 0 | – |
| Warning lasts 45 days | 17.6% | −16.7% | 42% | 16 | 47% (7 of 15) | 0 | – |
| SPY held throughout | 14.8% | −33.7% | – | – | 33% (any day) | – | +3.8% (any day) |
“SPY or T-bills”: SPY, switching to T-bills (BIL) at the next close after the rule turns bearish and back after it stops, 0.10% per switch, interest and dividends included. Hypothetical: no costs beyond that, no taxes.
Overlap with the other indicators
It agreed most often with 90% up and down days (63% of days in the same state). An indicator that almost always agrees with another adds little to the score.
Agreement with every indicator
| Indicator | Same state |
|---|---|
| 90% up and down days | 63% |
| Zweig breadth thrust | 61% |
| Up/down volume | 57% |
| Stocks above their 20-day average | 53% |
| Stocks beating SPY | 52% |
| Equal weight against SPY | 45% |
| Valuation | 42% |
| McClellan Oscillator | 40% |
| Stocks above their 200-day average | 25% |
| Small against large companies | 20% |
| Sector breadth | 20% |
| Advance-decline line | 12% |
| New highs minus new lows | 9% |
Research: what worked and what did not
The same test run many ways: the published rule year by year, every variant year by year, and grids over its settings. Return numbers are SPY-or-T-bills against SPY over the same days, in points; green means better than holding SPY, red worse.
Year by year
| Year | SPY | SPY or T-bills | Difference, points | SPY’s worst fall | Days bearish | Bearish signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017* | 7.4% | 3.8% | −3.6 difference in 2017 | −1.0% | 49% | 1 |
| 2018 | −4.6% | −0.6% | +3.9 difference in 2018 | −19.3% | 25% | 1 |
| 2019 | 31.2% | 31.0% | −0.2 difference in 2019 | −6.6% | 15% | 1 |
| 2020 | 18.4% | 61.5% | +43.1 difference in 2020 | −33.7% | 13% | 1 |
| 2021 | 28.7% | 26.5% | −2.2 difference in 2021 | −5.1% | 12% | 1 |
| 2022 | −18.2% | 0.1% | +18.3 difference in 2022 | −24.5% | 41% | 2 |
| 2023 | 26.2% | −0.5% | −26.6 difference in 2023 | −10.0% | 46% | 2 |
| 2024 | 24.9% | 24.3% | −0.6 difference in 2024 | −8.4% | 29% | 2 |
| 2025 | 17.7% | 15.9% | −1.8 difference in 2025 | −18.8% | 50% | 3 |
| 2026* | 12.8% | 18.8% | +6.0 difference in 2026 | −8.9% | 52% | 3 |
* Part of a year: Sep 18 to the end of 2017, and 2026 to Oct 16.
Every variant, year by year
Does a setting win steadily, or in one lucky year? Each square is that year’s difference from SPY.
| Variant | 2017* | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* | A year, whole period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This site's rule | −3.6 This site's rule, 2017, the site's rule | +3.9 This site's rule, 2018, the site's rule | −0.2 This site's rule, 2019, the site's rule | +43.1 This site's rule, 2020, the site's rule | −2.2 This site's rule, 2021, the site's rule | +18.3 This site's rule, 2022, the site's rule | −26.6 This site's rule, 2023, the site's rule | −0.6 This site's rule, 2024, the site's rule | −1.8 This site's rule, 2025, the site's rule | +6.0 This site's rule, 2026, the site's rule | +3.8 This site's rule, a year over the whole period, the site's rule |
| Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day | −3.6 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2017 | +3.9 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2018 | −0.2 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2019 | +43.1 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2020 | −2.2 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2021 | +18.3 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2022 | −30.3 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2023 | −12.7 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2024 | −3.2 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2025 | −1.5 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, 2026 | +0.9 Split only: 2.5% each way, SPY above its 50-day, a year over the whole period |
| Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows | +0.0 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2017 | +4.7 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2018 | −0.2 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2019 | +43.1 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2020 | −2.2 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2021 | +10.6 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2022 | −22.4 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2023 | −8.0 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2024 | −3.2 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2025 | +0.6 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, 2026 | +2.3 Classic: split + McClellan below zero, highs at most 2x lows, a year over the whole period |
| 2.0% each way | −3.9 2.0% each way, 2017 | +1.5 2.0% each way, 2018 | −5.2 2.0% each way, 2019 | +27.2 2.0% each way, 2020 | −2.0 2.0% each way, 2021 | +17.9 2.0% each way, 2022 | −20.1 2.0% each way, 2023 | −4.0 2.0% each way, 2024 | −3.0 2.0% each way, 2025 | +8.6 2.0% each way, 2026 | +2.2 2.0% each way, a year over the whole period |
| 3.0% each way | +0.0 3.0% each way, 2017 | +4.4 3.0% each way, 2018 | +0.0 3.0% each way, 2019 | +0.0 3.0% each way, 2020 | −2.2 3.0% each way, 2021 | +18.6 3.0% each way, 2022 | −17.6 3.0% each way, 2023 | +1.9 3.0% each way, 2024 | +5.3 3.0% each way, 2025 | +6.3 3.0% each way, 2026 | +2.5 3.0% each way, a year over the whole period |
| Large companies 2.0% at new highs | −3.6 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2017 | +3.9 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2018 | −0.2 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2019 | +43.1 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2020 | −2.2 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2021 | +18.3 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2022 | −30.3 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2023 | −5.3 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2024 | −3.2 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2025 | +6.6 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, 2026 | +2.7 Large companies 2.0% at new highs, a year over the whole period |
| No sector check | −3.6 No sector check, 2017 | +3.9 No sector check, 2018 | −0.2 No sector check, 2019 | +43.1 No sector check, 2020 | −2.2 No sector check, 2021 | +18.3 No sector check, 2022 | −26.6 No sector check, 2023 | −0.6 No sector check, 2024 | −1.8 No sector check, 2025 | −2.0 No sector check, 2026 | +2.8 No sector check, a year over the whole period |
| Warning lasts 20 days | −3.6 Warning lasts 20 days, 2017 | +4.5 Warning lasts 20 days, 2018 | +4.3 Warning lasts 20 days, 2019 | +9.9 Warning lasts 20 days, 2020 | −3.0 Warning lasts 20 days, 2021 | +8.2 Warning lasts 20 days, 2022 | −15.7 Warning lasts 20 days, 2023 | +5.1 Warning lasts 20 days, 2024 | +0.0 Warning lasts 20 days, 2025 | +0.6 Warning lasts 20 days, 2026 | +1.4 Warning lasts 20 days, a year over the whole period |
| Warning lasts 45 days | −3.6 Warning lasts 45 days, 2017 | +1.5 Warning lasts 45 days, 2018 | +4.9 Warning lasts 45 days, 2019 | +20.3 Warning lasts 45 days, 2020 | −2.2 Warning lasts 45 days, 2021 | +23.5 Warning lasts 45 days, 2022 | −20.7 Warning lasts 45 days, 2023 | −3.6 Warning lasts 45 days, 2024 | +5.2 Warning lasts 45 days, 2025 | −3.7 Warning lasts 45 days, 2026 | +2.7 Warning lasts 45 days, a year over the whole period |
Colour: points of return that year against SPY.8 or more3 to 80.5 to 3−0.5 to 0.5−3 to −0.5−10 to −3below −10 the site’s rule
The settings, tested on a grid
The split threshold against how long the warning lasts
Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. Rows: the share of stocks needed at new highs and at new lows; columns: how many trading days the warning lasts after the last firing. The large-company and sector checks stay as in the site's rule.
| Warning lasts → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share at new highs and lows ↓ | 10 days | 20 days | 30 days | 45 days | 60 days | Average |
| 2% | −1.0 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 10 days | +2.8 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 20 days | +2.2 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 30 days | −1.4 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 45 days | −2.3 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 60 days | +0.1 |
| 2.2% | +0.1 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 10 days | +3.7 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 20 days | +2.8 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 30 days | +0.6 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 45 days | −1.1 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 60 days | +1.2 |
| 2.5% | −1.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 10 days | +1.4 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 20 days | +3.8 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 30 days, the site's rule | +2.7 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 45 days | −0.1 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 60 days | +1.4 |
| 2.8% | +1.2 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 10 days | +2.2 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 20 days | +1.6 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 30 days | +2.5 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 45 days | +0.6 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 60 days | +1.6 |
| 3% | +1.9 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 10 days | +2.5 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 20 days | +2.5 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 30 days | +3.2 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 45 days | +1.6 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 60 days | +2.3 |
| 3.5% | −0.6 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 10 days | −0.6 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 20 days | −0.2 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 30 days | −1.2 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 45 days | −1.6 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 60 days | −0.9 |
| Average | +0.1 | +2.0 | +2.1 | +1.1 | −0.5 | |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
The same grid: how much smaller the worst fall was
Each square: SPY's worst fall minus the strategy's, in points (green: it fell less).
| Warning lasts → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share at new highs and lows ↓ | 10 days | 20 days | 30 days | 45 days | 60 days | Average |
| 2% | +7.0 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 10 days | +17.0 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 20 days | +16.8 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 30 days | +17.0 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 45 days | +17.0 Share at new highs and lows 2%, warning lasts 60 days | +15.0 |
| 2.2% | +7.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 10 days | +17.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 20 days | +16.8 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 30 days | +17.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 45 days | +17.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.2%, warning lasts 60 days | +15.0 |
| 2.5% | −0.7 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 10 days | +6.9 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 20 days | +16.6 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 30 days, the site's rule | +17.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 45 days | +17.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.5%, warning lasts 60 days | +11.4 |
| 2.8% | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 10 days | −0.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 20 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 30 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 45 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 2.8%, warning lasts 60 days | +0.0 |
| 3% | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 10 days | −0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 20 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 30 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 45 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3%, warning lasts 60 days | +0.0 |
| 3.5% | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 10 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 20 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 30 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 45 days | +0.0 Share at new highs and lows 3.5%, warning lasts 60 days | +0.0 |
| Average | +2.2 | +6.8 | +8.4 | +8.5 | +8.5 | |
Colour: points smaller worst fall than SPY's.10 or more5 to 101 to 5−1 to 1−5 to −1−10 to −5below −10 the site’s rule
Which checks to add to the basic split
Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. The basic split (2.5% at new highs and at new lows, SPY above its 50-day average), then with the large-company check (more than 3.0% of companies over $300 million at new highs and 2.0% at new lows), the sector check (3 or more sectors at each end), both, or the classic Omen's checks (McClellan Oscillator below zero, new highs at most twice new lows).
| Warning lasts → | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Checks ↓ | 10 days | 20 days | 30 days | 45 days | 60 days | Average |
| Split only | −2.7 Checks Split only, warning lasts 10 days | −1.1 Checks Split only, warning lasts 20 days | +0.9 Checks Split only, warning lasts 30 days | +0.2 Checks Split only, warning lasts 45 days | −1.8 Checks Split only, warning lasts 60 days | −0.9 |
| + large companies | −1.5 Checks + large companies, warning lasts 10 days | +0.5 Checks + large companies, warning lasts 20 days | +2.8 Checks + large companies, warning lasts 30 days | +2.2 Checks + large companies, warning lasts 45 days | −0.1 Checks + large companies, warning lasts 60 days | +0.8 |
| + sectors | −2.3 Checks + sectors, warning lasts 10 days | −0.3 Checks + sectors, warning lasts 20 days | +1.8 Checks + sectors, warning lasts 30 days | +0.7 Checks + sectors, warning lasts 45 days | −1.8 Checks + sectors, warning lasts 60 days | −0.3 |
| + large companies + sectors (site) | −1.0 Checks + large companies + sectors (site), warning lasts 10 days | +1.4 Checks + large companies + sectors (site), warning lasts 20 days | +3.8 Checks + large companies + sectors (site), warning lasts 30 days, the site's rule | +2.7 Checks + large companies + sectors (site), warning lasts 45 days | −0.1 Checks + large companies + sectors (site), warning lasts 60 days | +1.4 |
| Classic (McClellan, highs at most 2x lows) | −2.0 Checks Classic (McClellan, highs at most 2x lows), warning lasts 10 days | +0.7 Checks Classic (McClellan, highs at most 2x lows), warning lasts 20 days | +2.3 Checks Classic (McClellan, highs at most 2x lows), warning lasts 30 days | +3.5 Checks Classic (McClellan, highs at most 2x lows), warning lasts 45 days | +1.9 Checks Classic (McClellan, highs at most 2x lows), warning lasts 60 days | +1.3 |
| Classic + large companies + sectors | −0.7 Checks Classic + large companies + sectors, warning lasts 10 days | +2.0 Checks Classic + large companies + sectors, warning lasts 20 days | +4.3 Checks Classic + large companies + sectors, warning lasts 30 days | +4.9 Checks Classic + large companies + sectors, warning lasts 45 days | +3.5 Checks Classic + large companies + sectors, warning lasts 60 days | +2.8 |
| Average | −1.7 | +0.5 | +2.7 | +2.4 | +0.3 | |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
The large-company check: how many at new highs and at new lows
Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. Among companies worth more than $300 million: the share needed at new highs (rows) and at new lows (columns) for the split to count. 0% means the check is effectively off. Threshold 2.5%, sector check on, warning 30 days.
| At new lows → | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large companies at new highs ↓ | 0% | 1% | 1.5% | 2% | 2.5% | 3% | Average |
| 0% | +1.8 Large companies at new highs 0%, at new lows 0% | +1.8 Large companies at new highs 0%, at new lows 1% | +1.8 Large companies at new highs 0%, at new lows 1.5% | +1.8 Large companies at new highs 0%, at new lows 2% | −2.2 Large companies at new highs 0%, at new lows 2.5% | −1.9 Large companies at new highs 0%, at new lows 3% | +0.5 |
| 2% | +2.7 Large companies at new highs 2%, at new lows 0% | +2.7 Large companies at new highs 2%, at new lows 1% | +2.7 Large companies at new highs 2%, at new lows 1.5% | +2.7 Large companies at new highs 2%, at new lows 2% | −1.4 Large companies at new highs 2%, at new lows 2.5% | −0.9 Large companies at new highs 2%, at new lows 3% | +1.4 |
| 2.5% | +3.1 Large companies at new highs 2.5%, at new lows 0% | +3.1 Large companies at new highs 2.5%, at new lows 1% | +3.1 Large companies at new highs 2.5%, at new lows 1.5% | +3.1 Large companies at new highs 2.5%, at new lows 2% | −1.0 Large companies at new highs 2.5%, at new lows 2.5% | −0.4 Large companies at new highs 2.5%, at new lows 3% | +1.9 |
| 3% | +3.8 Large companies at new highs 3%, at new lows 0% | +3.8 Large companies at new highs 3%, at new lows 1% | +3.8 Large companies at new highs 3%, at new lows 1.5% | +3.8 Large companies at new highs 3%, at new lows 2%, the site's rule | −0.4 Large companies at new highs 3%, at new lows 2.5% | +0.4 Large companies at new highs 3%, at new lows 3% | +2.5 |
| 3.5% | +5.9 Large companies at new highs 3.5%, at new lows 0% | +5.9 Large companies at new highs 3.5%, at new lows 1% | +5.9 Large companies at new highs 3.5%, at new lows 1.5% | +5.9 Large companies at new highs 3.5%, at new lows 2% | +1.7 Large companies at new highs 3.5%, at new lows 2.5% | +2.2 Large companies at new highs 3.5%, at new lows 3% | +4.6 |
| 4% | +6.9 Large companies at new highs 4%, at new lows 0% | +6.9 Large companies at new highs 4%, at new lows 1% | +6.9 Large companies at new highs 4%, at new lows 1.5% | +6.9 Large companies at new highs 4%, at new lows 2% | +2.7 Large companies at new highs 4%, at new lows 2.5% | +4.0 Large companies at new highs 4%, at new lows 3% | +5.7 |
| Average | +4.0 | +4.0 | +4.0 | +4.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
The two halves of the history
The best settings found over the whole period, and how each did in 2017–2021 and in 2022–2026 on its own. A setting that only works in one half is fitted to the past.
| Setting | Whole period, a year | 2017–2021 | 2022–2026 | Worst fall smaller by | Ahead in both halves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The site's rule, but large companies at new highs 4% | +6.9 whole period | +8.9 2017 to 2021 | +5.4 2022 to 2026 | +17.0 worst fall | Yes |
| The site's rule, but large companies at new highs 3.5% | +5.9 whole period | +8.9 2017 to 2021 | +3.5 2022 to 2026 | +16.8 worst fall | Yes |
| The site's rule, but warning 45 days, classic McClellan check | +4.9 whole period | +7.2 2017 to 2021 | +3.2 2022 to 2026 | +17.0 worst fall | Yes |
| The site's rule, but classic McClellan check | +4.3 whole period | +9.7 2017 to 2021 | +0.0 2022 to 2026 | +15.1 worst fall | Yes |
| The site's rule, but large companies at new highs 4%, large companies at new lows 3% | +4.0 whole period | −0.5 2017 to 2021 | +8.1 2022 to 2026 | +0.0 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but split threshold 2.2%, warning 20 days | +3.7 whole period | +8.0 2017 to 2021 | +0.3 2022 to 2026 | +17.0 worst fall | Yes |
| The site’s rule | +3.8 whole period, the site's rule | +8.5 2017 to 2021, the site's rule | +0.0 2022 to 2026, the site's rule | +16.6 worst fall, the site's rule | Yes |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
Summary: the settings that helped the most
- Best single setting tested: the site's rule, but large companies at new highs 4%: +6.9 points a year over SPY (+8.9 in 2017–2021, +5.4 in 2022–2026), against +3.8 for the site’s rule. Found by looking at the results, so it is the most flattering number here, not a forecast.
- Share at new highs and lows: 3% did best on average (+2.3), 3.5% worst (−0.9).
- Warning lasts: 30 days did best on average (+2.1), 60 days worst (−0.5).
- Checks: Classic + large companies + sectors did best on average (+2.8), Split only worst (−0.9).
- Large companies at new highs: 4% did best on average (+5.7), 0% worst (+0.5).
- At new lows: 0% to 2% (identical results) did best on average (+4.0), 2.5% worst (−0.1).
- Protection depends on the setting: with 2%, 2.2%, 2.5% the worst fall was up to 17 points smaller than SPY’s; with 2.8%, 3%, 3.5% it was no smaller, so those settings did not step aside in SPY’s 34% fall from Feb 19, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020.
- Choosing the best setting in advance: the setting with the best result in 2017–2021 (the site's rule, but classic McClellan check, +9.7) scored +0.0 in 2022–2026, against +0.0 for the site’s rule; 35 of the 95 settings tested beat the rule in those later years.
The site keeps the rule it published, so its live record stays honest. The heat maps show which ingredients mattered across many settings; any one best square is partly luck, because the history holds only a handful of real declines.
Live record
The rule went live after the close of Oct 16, 2026. Every reading since was made by the daily run after that day’s close and is kept exactly as made; the newest few are corrected only if late price data changes them.
No live readings yet: the first comes after the next trading day.
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