Bear Rhythm

Overview › Size and valuation

Small caps vs large caps today

Smaller companies against the 500 largest: an appetite for risk, or a retreat to size. Updated after every US market close: small-cap against large-cap stocks, with its exact rule and its record since 2017.

NowBearishsince Sep 23, 2026
Reading, Oct 16, 2026Small against large 4.8% below its 50-day average.
Live sinceOct 16, 2026readings after this day are the live record
Backtest fromNov 27, 20172,234 trading days

What it means now

Small against large companies is bearish today. Small against large 4.8% below its 50-day average. It was also bearish a week ago (-2.9%; now -4.8%). On days in this state since 2017, SPY returned +4.1% on average over the next three months, against +3.7% from any day. Bearish signals were followed by a fall of 5% or more within three months 35% of the time (25 of 71), against 34% of all days. A description of the past, not a forecast.

The past year. Top: SPY, shaded where the rule was bearish (red) or bullish (green). Bottom: the indicator.
Small against large companies, past yearSmall against large companies, past year, Oct 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026. Top: SPY, with the 40 bearish days shaded red and the 196 bullish days shaded green. Bottom: Small / large against its average, % −4.8% at the end.SPY (log scale)Jan 2026Apr 2026Jul 2026−5.0%0.0%5.0%0-0.5%Small / large against its average, %

What does small caps against large caps show?

Small companies tend to lead when investors are confident and lag when they look for safety in the largest, best-financed ones.

How it is calculated

  1. Give equal amounts to every US company worth $300 million to $2 billion (over $5 a share), and equal amounts to the 500 largest; compare the two.
  2. Bullish when small companies' value against the large is above its 50-day average, bearish when it is more than 0.5% below it, neutral between.

A standard setting, fixed before testing, not the best of the variants below. A state is decided from a day’s closing prices and published after that close.

How reliable has it been? Its record since Nov 27, 2017

Holding SPY, but T-bills while Small against large companies was bearish, would have returned 12.6% a year with a worst fall of −16.7%, against 14.6% a year and −33.7% for SPY held throughout. Of its bearish signals with three months of history after them, 25 of 71 (35%) were followed by a fall of 5% or more in SPY within three months, against 34% of all 2,171 days (neighbouring days overlap, so days are not independent events). After its 64 bullish signals SPY returned +4.1% on average over three months, against +3.7% from any day. It turned bearish ahead of 5 of the 5 declines of 10% or more in this period.

The whole history. Shading as above.
Small against large companies since 2017Small against large companies since 2017, Nov 27, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026. Top: SPY, with the 871 bearish days shaded red and the 1221 bullish days shaded green. Bottom: Small / large against its average, % −4.8% at the end.SPY (log scale)201820192020202120222023202420252026−10.0%0.0%10.0%0-0.5%Small / large against its average, %
The full record and research: every state, decline, signal, variant and setting tested

SPY after each state

SPY after each state
FromDaysSPY, next month (avg)SPY, next 3 months (avg)
Bearish days871+0.2%+4.1%
Neutral days142+0.8%+3.0%
Bullish days1,221+2.0%+3.5%
All days2,234+1.3%+3.7%

Averages over every day in that state; the periods overlap, so treat them as a description, not a forecast.

Every decline of 10% or more

SPY declines of 10% or more
HighLowFallBearish by the highDays bearish on the way downA month after the low
Jan 26, 2018Feb 8, 2018−10.1%Yes90%Bullish
Sep 20, 2018Dec 24, 2018−19.3%Yes98%Neutral
Feb 19, 2020Mar 23, 2020−33.7%Yes100%Bearish
Jan 3, 2022Oct 12, 2022−24.5%Yes28%Bearish
Feb 19, 2025Apr 8, 2025−18.8%Yes100%Bullish

“Bearish by the high”: bearish at some point from a month before SPY’s high to a week after it.

Every signal (136), newest first
Every signal and what SPY did next
DateTurnedSPY 1 month later3 months6 monthsLowest close within 3 months
Sep 23, 2026Bearish––––
Sep 22, 2026Bullish––––
Jun 4, 2026Bullish−1.0%+2.4%–−4.2%
Mar 23, 2026Bullish+8.5%+12.2%+18.6%−3.6%
Mar 13, 2026Bearish+5.1%+12.3%+15.5%−4.3%
Mar 9, 2026Bearish−0.1%+9.3%+13.5%−6.6%
Mar 4, 2026Bullish−4.0%+10.4%+12.3%−7.5%
Feb 11, 2026Bearish−4.3%+7.6%+13.0%−8.4%
Nov 21, 2025Bullish+4.7%+5.5%+14.5%+1.5%
Nov 17, 2025Bearish+0.9%+3.1%+12.0%−2.0%
Nov 11, 2025Bullish+0.9%+0.0%+10.2%−4.5%
Nov 5, 2025Bullish+1.2%+2.2%+9.5%−3.7%
Aug 4, 2025Bullish+2.0%+8.4%+9.9%−0.5%
May 8, 2025Bullish+6.1%+13.1%+19.3%−0.1%
Jan 16, 2025Bearish+3.4%−10.8%+6.9%−15.8%
Jan 10, 2025Bearish+4.3%−7.7%+7.8%−14.2%
Oct 15, 2024Bullish+3.0%+2.4%−8.6%−1.9%
Sep 20, 2024Bearish+2.7%+3.1%+1.9%−0.1%
Sep 19, 2024Bullish+2.7%+3.0%+1.5%−0.3%
Sep 16, 2024Bearish+3.3%+7.7%+1.4%−0.3%
Sep 3, 2024Bearish+3.4%+9.7%+4.4%−2.1%
Aug 23, 2024Bullish+1.9%+5.9%+6.4%−3.9%
Aug 22, 2024Bearish+2.7%+6.5%+7.5%−2.9%
Aug 19, 2024Bullish+0.3%+5.0%+9.8%−3.4%
Aug 9, 2024Bearish+3.0%+12.1%+14.3%+0.1%
Jul 11, 2024Bullish−4.2%+4.0%+5.0%−7.0%
Jul 1, 2024Bearish+1.0%+5.5%+8.6%−5.1%
Jun 14, 2024Bearish+2.9%+4.0%+12.0%−4.4%
Jun 12, 2024Bullish+4.1%+3.6%+12.9%−4.1%
May 1, 2024Bullish+5.4%+8.9%+16.7%+0.9%
Apr 1, 2024Bearish−3.9%+4.8%+10.6%−5.2%
Feb 20, 2024Bearish+5.1%+7.0%+13.2%−0.0%
Feb 15, 2024Bullish+2.5%+5.6%+11.1%−1.1%
Feb 13, 2024Bearish+4.2%+6.2%+10.8%+0.5%
Feb 12, 2024Bullish+3.0%+4.3%+8.9%−1.4%
Feb 2, 2024Bearish+2.6%+3.8%+5.3%−0.4%
Dec 1, 2023Bullish+2.5%+10.9%+15.9%−0.9%
Nov 29, 2023Bullish+5.0%+13.3%+16.8%+0.0%
Nov 24, 2023Bullish+4.9%+11.8%+17.2%−0.2%
Nov 21, 2023Bearish+4.7%+12.5%+16.9%+0.3%
Nov 17, 2023Bullish+5.8%+10.7%+18.7%+0.6%
Nov 16, 2023Bearish+5.3%+10.8%+18.6%+0.1%
Nov 14, 2023Bullish+5.2%+12.3%+18.7%+0.2%
Nov 6, 2023Bearish+4.4%+14.8%+19.6%−0.4%
Sep 5, 2023Bearish−5.1%+2.0%+14.3%−8.3%
Sep 1, 2023Bullish−6.2%+2.1%+13.3%−8.7%
Jul 26, 2023Bullish−4.1%−6.7%+8.0%−7.4%
May 22, 2023Bullish+4.6%+5.0%+9.3%−1.8%
Mar 10, 2023Bearish+6.6%+11.8%+17.1%−0.1%
Jan 10, 2023Bullish+4.2%+4.9%+16.0%−1.3%
Jan 6, 2023Bearish+7.0%+6.0%+14.9%−0.7%
Nov 15, 2022Bearish−2.2%+2.9%+6.1%−5.0%
Nov 10, 2022Bearish+1.1%+5.1%+5.5%−4.1%
Jun 1, 2022Bullish−6.5%−3.1%+0.4%−10.5%
May 26, 2022Bearish−5.7%+0.4%+0.1%−9.5%
May 24, 2022Bearish−0.5%+5.5%+2.4%−6.9%
May 18, 2022Bullish−6.2%+9.7%+1.8%−6.4%
May 4, 2022Bearish−4.3%−3.1%−11.9%−14.5%
May 2, 2022Bullish−1.2%−1.1%−6.0%−11.5%
Apr 27, 2022Bearish−2.9%−2.3%−7.7%−12.1%
Apr 7, 2022Bearish−11.3%−14.0%−18.5%−18.3%
Mar 31, 2022Bullish−8.2%−15.2%−20.2%−18.8%
Mar 29, 2022Bullish−7.3%−17.2%−19.0%−20.6%
Feb 15, 2022Bullish−1.1%−8.2%−3.7%−11.8%
Nov 18, 2021Bearish−2.8%−7.2%−16.5%−7.9%
Nov 1, 2021Bullish−2.1%−1.2%−8.9%−5.9%
Oct 15, 2021Bearish+4.8%+4.6%−1.1%+0.3%
Sep 17, 2021Bullish+1.3%+5.7%+1.4%−2.9%
Sep 14, 2021Bearish−1.7%+5.4%−3.4%−3.2%
Sep 8, 2021Bearish−2.4%+4.2%−4.6%−4.6%
Sep 7, 2021Bullish−3.4%+2.0%−7.2%−4.7%
Jul 2, 2021Bearish+1.7%+0.4%+10.3%−2.0%
Jun 29, 2021Bearish+3.0%+1.7%+12.3%−0.6%
Jun 7, 2021Bullish+3.2%+7.7%+8.1%−1.4%
Jun 3, 2021Bullish+3.9%+8.2%+8.3%−0.6%
Mar 26, 2021Bearish+5.4%+8.1%+12.8%−0.3%
Mar 24, 2021Bearish+7.5%+9.4%+13.7%+0.6%
Nov 9, 2020Bullish+3.5%+10.5%+15.2%−0.4%
Nov 6, 2020Bearish+5.7%+11.9%+19.2%+0.9%
Oct 15, 2020Bullish+3.1%+8.6%+20.4%−6.0%
Oct 5, 2020Bullish−1.1%+9.8%+20.6%−3.9%
Sep 22, 2020Bearish+3.8%+11.8%+18.2%−2.3%
Sep 4, 2020Bullish−1.8%+8.4%+14.0%−5.4%
Sep 2, 2020Bearish−6.3%+3.0%+8.1%−9.4%
Aug 28, 2020Bullish−4.8%+4.2%+11.2%−7.6%
Aug 5, 2020Bullish+4.0%+1.6%+17.3%−2.5%
Jul 24, 2020Bearish+6.9%+7.8%+20.8%+0.1%
Jul 23, 2020Bullish+5.1%+6.6%+19.5%−0.6%
Jul 22, 2020Bearish+3.5%+5.5%+18.5%−1.8%
Jul 21, 2020Bullish+3.8%+5.7%+19.1%−1.3%
Jul 20, 2020Bearish+4.4%+7.5%+17.7%−1.1%
Jul 15, 2020Bullish+4.7%+9.2%+19.0%−0.3%
Jul 8, 2020Bearish+5.7%+6.4%+19.1%−0.6%
Apr 27, 2020Bullish+5.7%+13.1%+21.5%−1.9%
Jan 28, 2020Bearish−9.0%−12.1%−0.7%−31.4%
Jan 24, 2020Bearish−4.9%−13.4%−1.4%−31.8%
Jan 14, 2020Bullish+2.9%−14.7%−0.7%−31.5%
Oct 21, 2019Bullish+4.0%+11.0%−5.9%−0.3%
Oct 9, 2019Bearish+5.8%+12.7%−3.4%+0.7%
Oct 4, 2019Bearish+4.4%+10.5%−9.0%−2.0%
Oct 1, 2019Bearish+3.7%+10.3%−15.1%−1.8%
Sep 27, 2019Bullish+2.7%+9.8%−10.4%−2.5%
Sep 10, 2019Bullish−1.8%+5.8%−7.1%−2.9%
Aug 6, 2019Bearish+3.5%+7.3%+16.8%−1.4%
Jul 31, 2019Bullish−1.6%+2.4%+11.2%−4.6%
May 22, 2019Bearish+3.4%+2.9%+10.2%−3.9%
May 17, 2019Bearish+2.3%+1.5%+9.3%−3.9%
May 3, 2019Bullish−4.6%+0.0%+4.1%−6.6%
Apr 30, 2019Bearish−5.1%+2.8%+4.1%−6.6%
Apr 11, 2019Bearish−2.6%+4.8%+2.7%−4.7%
Apr 8, 2019Bearish−0.4%+3.4%+2.5%−4.9%
Mar 13, 2019Bearish+2.9%+3.0%+7.7%−2.0%
Mar 11, 2019Bullish+3.6%+4.2%+8.1%−1.0%
Feb 11, 2019Bullish+4.0%+4.2%+7.5%+1.3%
Jan 29, 2019Bearish+5.8%+12.1%+15.2%+1.6%
Jan 22, 2019Bearish+5.5%+11.9%+15.2%+0.2%
Jan 7, 2019Bullish+7.2%+14.0%+17.9%+0.9%
Nov 26, 2018Bearish−6.7%+4.8%+5.4%−11.9%
Sep 13, 2018Bearish−4.7%−8.3%−1.5%−9.1%
Aug 30, 2018Bullish+0.9%−5.2%−2.9%−8.9%
Aug 21, 2018Bullish+2.5%−5.6%−1.5%−7.4%
Aug 15, 2018Bearish+3.2%−3.0%−0.5%−5.9%
Jul 25, 2018Bearish+0.6%−3.2%−5.4%−3.7%
Mar 1, 2018Bullish−3.4%+1.6%+9.8%−3.4%
Feb 21, 2018Bullish−2.0%+1.4%+6.9%−4.3%
Feb 12, 2018Bearish+3.8%+3.3%+7.2%−2.6%
Feb 8, 2018Bullish+8.1%+6.0%+11.6%+0.3%
Jan 24, 2018Bearish−3.0%−6.5%+1.1%−9.0%
Jan 22, 2018Bearish−4.5%−5.3%−0.0%−8.9%
Jan 16, 2018Bearish−2.7%−2.1%+2.1%−7.0%
Jan 11, 2018Bullish−3.9%−3.6%+2.1%−6.7%
Jan 9, 2018Bearish−6.2%−3.5%+1.7%−6.2%
Dec 15, 2017Bullish+4.7%+2.1%+4.3%−3.3%
Dec 14, 2017Bearish+5.8%+2.7%+5.5%−2.5%
Dec 8, 2017Bearish+3.8%+4.8%+6.0%−2.5%
Dec 6, 2017Bearish+4.6%+6.5%+6.6%−1.6%

Variants tested

The same measures for other common settings, so the result can be checked for luck: a rule that only works with one exact number is fragile. The highlighted row is the published rule.

Every variant tested
VariantSPY or T-bills, a yearWorst fallDays bearishBearish signalsFollowed by a 5% fallBullish signalsSPY 3 months after
21-day average, 0.0% band7.8%−19.8%48%12333% (40 of 120)123+4.4%
21-day average, 0.5% band10.3%−20.6%36%11934% (38 of 113)123+4.4%
21-day average, 1.0% band11.7%−22.1%24%10736% (37 of 104)123+4.4%
50-day average, 0.0% band12.3%−16.7%45%6535% (22 of 63)64+4.1%
50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule)12.6%−16.7%39%7235% (25 of 71)64+4.1%
50-day average, 1.0% band13.0%−19.5%32%7448% (34 of 71)64+4.1%
100-day average, 0.0% band10.4%−18.9%43%5231% (16 of 51)51+4.0%
100-day average, 0.5% band9.6%−21.7%38%5031% (15 of 49)51+4.0%
100-day average, 1.0% band11.7%−22.6%33%5436% (19 of 53)51+4.0%
SPY held throughout14.6%−33.7%––34% (any day)–+3.7% (any day)

“SPY or T-bills”: SPY, switching to T-bills (BIL) at the next close after the rule turns bearish and back after it stops, 0.10% per switch, interest and dividends included. Hypothetical: no costs beyond that, no taxes.

Overlap with the other indicators

It agreed most often with Advance-decline line (66% of days in the same state). An indicator that almost always agrees with another adds little to the score.

Agreement with every indicator
Share of days in the same state as each other indicator
IndicatorSame state
Advance-decline line66%
New highs minus new lows58%
Sector breadth48%
Stocks above their 200-day average45%
Stocks beating SPY33%
McClellan Oscillator33%
Stocks above their 20-day average28%
Equal weight against SPY26%
Valuation20%
Hindenburg Omen20%
Up/down volume17%
90% up and down days13%
Zweig breadth thrust11%

Research: what worked and what did not

The same test run many ways: the published rule year by year, every variant year by year, and grids over its settings. Return numbers are SPY-or-T-bills against SPY over the same days, in points; green means better than holding SPY, red worse.

Year by year

The rule year by year
YearSPYSPY or T-billsDifference, pointsSPY’s worst fallDays bearishDays bullishBearish signals
2017*3.1%1.5%−1.5 difference in 2017−0.7%21%67%3
2018−4.6%13.0%+17.6 difference in 2018−19.3%43%48%9
201931.2%4.5%−26.8 difference in 2019−6.6%49%39%12
202018.4%20.0%+1.6 difference in 2020−33.7%34%60%9
202128.7%7.6%−21.2 difference in 2021−5.1%54%41%8
2022−18.2%4.0%+22.1 difference in 2022−24.5%35%59%7
202326.2%14.4%−11.8 difference in 2023−10.0%40%54%6
202424.9%10.0%−14.9 difference in 2024−8.4%41%54%11
202517.7%22.5%+4.8 difference in 2025−18.8%32%62%3
2026*12.8%15.8%+3.0 difference in 2026−8.9%20%77%4

* Part of a year: Nov 27 to the end of 2017, and 2026 to Oct 16.

Every variant, year by year

Does a setting win steadily, or in one lucky year? Each square is that year’s difference from SPY.

Every variant: its difference from SPY each year, in points
Variant2017*201820192020202120222023202420252026*A year, whole period
21-day average, 0.0% band−3.5 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2017+17.0 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2018−20.5 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2019−7.8 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2020−24.6 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2021+4.1 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2022−7.5 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2023−29.5 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2024+4.6 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2025+0.5 21-day average, 0.0% band, 2026−6.9 21-day average, 0.0% band, a year over the whole period
21-day average, 0.5% band−1.1 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2017+26.1 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2018−24.2 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2019−4.6 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2020−22.5 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2021+3.3 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2022−11.1 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2023−23.4 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2024+14.6 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2025−0.9 21-day average, 0.5% band, 2026−4.4 21-day average, 0.5% band, a year over the whole period
21-day average, 1.0% band−1.0 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2017+14.2 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2018−16.6 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2019+3.5 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2020−17.1 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2021−0.2 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2022−0.9 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2023−20.1 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2024+6.9 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2025+1.4 21-day average, 1.0% band, 2026−3.0 21-day average, 1.0% band, a year over the whole period
50-day average, 0.0% band−2.6 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2017+20.5 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2018−25.6 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2019+10.1 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2020−19.6 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2021+9.5 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2022−13.3 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2023−18.1 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2024+3.9 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2025+8.4 50-day average, 0.0% band, 2026−2.4 50-day average, 0.0% band, a year over the whole period
50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule)−1.5 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2017, the site's rule+17.6 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2018, the site's rule−26.8 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2019, the site's rule+1.6 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2020, the site's rule−21.2 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2021, the site's rule+22.1 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2022, the site's rule−11.8 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2023, the site's rule−14.9 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2024, the site's rule+4.8 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2025, the site's rule+3.0 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), 2026, the site's rule−2.0 50-day average, 0.5% band (this site's rule), a year over the whole period, the site's rule
50-day average, 1.0% band+0.2 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2017+22.4 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2018−19.5 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2019+2.0 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2020−18.9 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2021+12.2 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2022−9.1 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2023−13.4 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2024+4.0 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2025−2.4 50-day average, 1.0% band, 2026−1.6 50-day average, 1.0% band, a year over the whole period
100-day average, 0.0% band– 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2017+15.4 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2018−28.2 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2019−8.7 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2020−18.8 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2021+22.1 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2022−21.4 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2023−15.1 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2024+2.6 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2025+3.2 100-day average, 0.0% band, 2026−4.6 100-day average, 0.0% band, a year over the whole period
100-day average, 0.5% band– 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2017+13.5 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2018−28.0 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2019−9.1 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2020−18.1 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2021+12.8 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2022−15.3 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2023−15.1 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2024+2.1 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2025+2.1 100-day average, 0.5% band, 2026−5.4 100-day average, 0.5% band, a year over the whole period
100-day average, 1.0% band– 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2017+14.2 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2018−24.6 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2019−7.3 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2020−9.9 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2021+11.9 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2022−16.2 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2023−8.0 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2024+0.9 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2025+2.2 100-day average, 1.0% band, 2026−3.4 100-day average, 1.0% band, a year over the whole period
Colour: points of return that year against SPY.8 or more3 to 80.5 to 3−0.5 to 0.5−3 to −0.5−10 to −3below −10 the site’s rule

The settings, tested on a grid

Average length and band: return against SPY

Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. Rows: the average small against large is compared with; columns: how far below it counts as bearish.

Average length and band: return against SPY: points of return a year against SPY
Bearish when below by →
Average ↓0%0.5%1%2%3%Average
21 days−6.9 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 0%−4.4 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 0.5%−3.0 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 1%+2.4 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 2%+0.2 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 3%−2.3
50 days−2.4 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 0%−2.0 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 0.5%, the site's rule−1.6 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 1%+0.3 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 2%+2.1 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 3%−0.7
100 days−4.6 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 0%−5.4 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 0.5%−3.4 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 1%−0.8 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 2%+0.5 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 3%−2.8
200 days−4.7 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 0%−5.0 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 0.5%−3.3 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 1%−1.1 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 2%−3.8 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 3%−3.6
Average−4.7−4.2−2.8+0.2−0.3
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule

Average length and band: how much smaller the worst fall was

Each square: SPY's worst fall minus the strategy's, in points (green: it fell less). Rows: the average small against large is compared with; columns: how far below it counts as bearish.

Average length and band: how much smaller the worst fall was: points smaller worst fall than SPY's
Bearish when below by →
Average ↓0%0.5%1%2%3%Average
21 days+13.9 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 0%+13.1 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 0.5%+11.6 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 1%+11.6 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 2%+9.2 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 3%+11.9
50 days+17.0 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 0%+17.0 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 0.5%, the site's rule+14.2 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 1%+8.0 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 2%+11.6 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 3%+13.6
100 days+14.8 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 0%+12.0 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 0.5%+11.1 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 1%+11.6 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 2%+11.2 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 3%+12.2
200 days+17.0 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 0%+14.5 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 0.5%+16.7 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 1%+17.0 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 2%+12.0 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 3%+15.4
Average+15.7+14.1+13.4+12.1+11.0
Colour: points smaller worst fall than SPY's.10 or more5 to 101 to 5−1 to 1−5 to −1−10 to −5below −10 the site’s rule

Average length and band: SPY after the bullish days

Each square: SPY's average return over the next 63 trading days from the bullish days, minus its average from every day, in points (green: bullish days were followed by better than usual returns). Rows: the average small against large is compared with; columns: how far below it counts as bearish.

Average length and band: SPY after the bullish days: points of SPY return over the next 63 days, bullish days against all days
Bearish when below by →
Average ↓0%0.5%1%2%3%Average
21 days+0.2 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 0%+0.2 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 0.5%+0.2 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 1%+0.2 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 2%+0.2 Average 21 days, bearish when below by 3%+0.2
50 days−0.2 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 0%−0.2 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 0.5%, the site's rule−0.2 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 1%−0.2 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 2%−0.2 Average 50 days, bearish when below by 3%−0.2
100 days−0.7 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 0%−0.7 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 0.5%−0.7 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 1%−0.7 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 2%−0.7 Average 100 days, bearish when below by 3%−0.7
200 days−1.0 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 0%−1.0 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 0.5%−1.0 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 1%−1.0 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 2%−1.0 Average 200 days, bearish when below by 3%−1.0
Average−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4
Colour: points of SPY return over the next 63 days, bullish days against all days.3 or more1.5 to 30.5 to 1.5−0.5 to 0.5−1.5 to −0.5−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule

The two halves of the history

The best settings found over the whole period, and how each did in 2017–2021 and in 2022–2026 on its own. A setting that only works in one half is fitted to the past.

The best settings, and how each did in each half
SettingWhole period, a year2017–20212022–2026Worst fall smaller byAhead in both halves
The site's rule, but 21-day average, bearish 2% below+2.4 whole period+3.8 2017 to 2021+1.3 2022 to 2026+11.6 worst fallYes
The site's rule, but bearish 3% below+2.1 whole period−0.9 2017 to 2021+4.8 2022 to 2026+11.6 worst fallNo
The site's rule, but 100-day average, bearish 3% below+0.5 whole period+1.2 2017 to 2021+0.0 2022 to 2026+11.2 worst fallYes
The site's rule, but bearish 2% below+0.3 whole period+0.9 2017 to 2021+0.0 2022 to 2026+8.0 worst fallYes
The site's rule, but 21-day average, bearish 3% below+0.2 whole period+1.1 2017 to 2021−0.6 2022 to 2026+9.2 worst fallNo
The site's rule, but 100-day average, bearish 2% below−0.8 whole period−3.6 2017 to 2021+1.5 2022 to 2026+11.6 worst fallNo
The site’s rule−2.0 whole period, the site's rule−6.7 2017 to 2021, the site's rule+2.0 2022 to 2026, the site's rule+17.0 worst fall, the site's ruleNo
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule

Summary: the settings that helped the most

The site keeps the rule it published, so its live record stays honest. The heat maps show which ingredients mattered across many settings; any one best square is partly luck, because the history holds only a handful of real declines.

Live record

The rule went live after the close of Oct 16, 2026. Every reading since was made by the daily run after that day’s close and is kept exactly as made; the newest few are corrected only if late price data changes them.

No live readings yet: the first comes after the next trading day.

From the same author

Bull Rhythm: momentum strategies, tracked live every trading day

Eight model stock portfolios built on 12-1 momentum, one of the most researched return factors in finance, run by fixed rules and measured against the S&P 500.

  • Every holding and every trade published, with the reason in plain words
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