Overview › Stock breadth
Equal weight vs cap weight today
The 500 largest companies with equal amounts in each, against SPY: is the rise carried by a few giants? Updated after every US market close: equal-weight against cap-weight large stocks, the measure behind RSP vs SPY, with its exact rule and its record since 2017.
NowNeutralsince Sep 9, 2026
Reading, Oct 16, 2026Equal weight 0.9 points behind SPY over 63 days.
Live sinceOct 16, 2026readings after this day are the live record
Backtest fromDec 15, 20172,220 trading days
What it means now
Equal weight against SPY is neutral today. Equal weight 0.9 points behind SPY over 63 days. It was also neutral a week ago (-2.87; now -0.94). On days in this state since 2017, SPY returned +2.7% on average over the next three months, against +3.7% from any day. A description of the past, not a forecast.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Equal weight minus SPY, percentage points
What does equal weight against SPY show?
SPY puts most of its money in the largest companies. When the typical large company lags far behind it, the index is being lifted by a handful of giants: a narrow market.
How it is calculated
- Take the 500 largest US companies by market value (at the end of the previous month) and give each the same amount: the equal-weight return. Compare it with SPY, which gives the biggest companies the most.
- Over the last 63 trading days: bearish when the equal-weight return is more than 5 percentage points behind SPY, bullish when it is ahead, neutral between.
A standard setting, fixed before testing, not the best of the variants below. A state is decided from a day’s closing prices and published after that close.
How reliable has it been? Its record since Dec 15, 2017
Holding SPY, but T-bills while Equal weight against SPY was bearish, would have returned 14.9% a year with a worst fall of −29.2%, against 14.4% a year and −33.7% for SPY held throughout. Of its bearish signals with three months of history after them, 5 of 13 (38%) were followed by a fall of 5% or more in SPY within three months, against 34% of all 2,157 days (neighbouring days overlap, so days are not independent events). After its 50 bullish signals SPY returned +3.2% on average over three months, against +3.7% from any day. It turned bearish ahead of 1 of the 5 declines of 10% or more in this period.
- SPY
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Equal weight minus SPY, percentage points
The full record and research: every state, decline, signal, variant and setting tested
SPY after each state
| From | Days | SPY, next month (avg) | SPY, next 3 months (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish days | 55 | +1.2% | +5.0% |
| Neutral days | 1,442 | +0.8% | +2.7% |
| Bullish days | 723 | +2.1% | +5.7% |
| All days | 2,220 | +1.3% | +3.7% |
Averages over every day in that state; the periods overlap, so treat them as a description, not a forecast.
Every decline of 10% or more
| High | Low | Fall | Bearish by the high | Days bearish on the way down | A month after the low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2018 | Feb 8, 2018 | −10.1% | No | 0% | Neutral |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | −19.3% | No | 0% | Bullish |
| Feb 19, 2020 | Mar 23, 2020 | −33.7% | No | 12% | Neutral |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Oct 12, 2022 | −24.5% | Yes | 2% | Bullish |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Apr 8, 2025 | −18.8% | No | 0% | Bullish |
“Bearish by the high”: bearish at some point from a month before SPY’s high to a week after it.
Every signal (63), newest first
| Date | Turned | SPY 1 month later | 3 months | 6 months | Lowest close within 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bullish | −0.9% | – | – | – |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Bullish | +3.6% | – | – | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Bearish | −0.7% | +2.6% | – | −2.3% |
| May 26, 2026 | Bearish | −1.9% | +2.3% | – | −3.4% |
| May 13, 2026 | Bearish | −0.1% | +5.1% | – | −2.3% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Bullish | −1.8% | +1.2% | +8.8% | −8.7% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Bullish | −0.3% | −0.9% | +8.9% | −8.7% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Bearish | +2.6% | +5.8% | +9.5% | −0.1% |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Bullish | +2.0% | +7.9% | +11.9% | −0.3% |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Bullish | +4.2% | +9.7% | +15.0% | −0.9% |
| Mar 5, 2025 | Bullish | −7.7% | +2.5% | +12.0% | −14.6% |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Bullish | −3.6% | +1.8% | +10.3% | −14.7% |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Bullish | −7.3% | −2.4% | +5.3% | −18.6% |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Bullish | +0.5% | +0.5% | −0.4% | −1.9% |
| Nov 15, 2024 | Bullish | +3.2% | +4.6% | +0.1% | −0.6% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Bullish | +6.2% | +6.2% | −1.1% | +0.2% |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Bullish | +3.4% | +9.9% | +5.2% | −1.9% |
| Jul 22, 2024 | Bearish | +0.7% | +5.7% | +10.0% | −6.7% |
| Jun 26, 2024 | Bearish | −0.2% | +4.8% | +10.9% | −5.2% |
| Jun 14, 2024 | Bearish | +2.9% | +4.0% | +12.0% | −4.4% |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Bullish | +7.0% | +12.4% | +18.8% | +0.9% |
| Jan 12, 2024 | Bullish | +3.7% | +6.2% | +19.3% | −0.9% |
| Jan 2, 2024 | Bullish | +3.5% | +10.2% | +17.4% | −1.1% |
| Dec 14, 2023 | Bullish | +0.5% | +9.4% | +16.7% | −0.6% |
| Dec 1, 2023 | Bullish | +2.5% | +10.9% | +15.9% | −0.9% |
| May 25, 2023 | Bearish | +5.6% | +6.5% | +10.6% | +0.8% |
| May 22, 2023 | Bearish | +4.6% | +5.0% | +9.3% | −1.8% |
| May 18, 2023 | Bearish | +4.7% | +4.5% | +8.2% | −1.9% |
| Oct 26, 2022 | Bullish | +5.3% | +6.7% | +9.8% | −2.9% |
| Oct 18, 2022 | Bullish | +6.6% | +5.2% | +11.9% | −1.5% |
| Oct 3, 2022 | Bullish | +4.9% | +4.4% | +12.4% | −2.7% |
| Aug 8, 2022 | Bullish | −3.7% | −8.5% | +1.4% | −13.3% |
| Jul 26, 2022 | Bullish | +5.8% | −2.7% | +3.3% | −8.4% |
| May 19, 2022 | Bullish | −3.3% | +8.9% | +2.1% | −5.9% |
| Apr 27, 2022 | Bullish | −2.9% | −2.3% | −7.7% | −12.1% |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Bullish | −7.3% | −17.2% | −19.0% | −20.6% |
| Mar 16, 2022 | Bullish | +0.8% | −12.7% | −9.8% | −13.9% |
| Mar 14, 2022 | Bullish | +5.4% | −9.8% | −5.0% | −9.8% |
| Mar 8, 2022 | Bullish | +7.6% | +0.2% | −3.7% | −6.1% |
| Mar 1, 2022 | Bullish | +7.0% | −3.7% | −6.7% | −9.1% |
| Feb 23, 2022 | Bullish | +7.1% | −6.4% | −1.2% | −7.4% |
| Jan 12, 2022 | Bearish | −6.5% | −5.6% | −17.6% | −11.6% |
| Jan 3, 2022 | Bearish | −4.3% | −4.1% | −19.2% | −12.9% |
| Nov 17, 2021 | Bullish | −1.4% | −6.3% | −16.3% | −7.6% |
| Nov 12, 2021 | Bullish | −0.8% | −5.7% | −13.8% | −7.4% |
| Oct 11, 2021 | Bullish | +7.5% | +7.5% | +1.9% | −0.2% |
| Jun 28, 2021 | Bullish | +2.7% | +3.9% | +12.4% | −0.6% |
| Oct 29, 2020 | Bullish | +9.7% | +14.5% | +27.7% | −1.0% |
| Oct 6, 2020 | Bullish | +2.6% | +12.0% | +22.9% | −2.5% |
| Jun 3, 2020 | Bullish | +0.5% | +13.4% | +18.2% | −3.7% |
| Mar 17, 2020 | Bearish | +11.1% | +24.6% | +36.0% | −11.3% |
| Aug 5, 2019 | Bullish | +3.6% | +8.4% | +17.0% | +0.0% |
| Jul 23, 2019 | Bullish | −2.5% | +0.5% | +11.5% | −5.4% |
| Mar 28, 2019 | Bullish | +4.7% | +4.3% | +6.8% | −2.2% |
| Dec 4, 2018 | Bullish | −5.3% | +2.2% | +7.5% | −12.8% |
| Nov 21, 2018 | Bullish | −11.0% | +6.0% | +6.8% | −11.0% |
| May 30, 2018 | Bullish | −0.2% | +6.8% | −0.7% | −0.8% |
| May 25, 2018 | Bullish | +0.2% | +6.1% | −2.4% | −1.2% |
| May 17, 2018 | Bullish | +2.1% | +4.9% | +0.2% | −1.1% |
| May 8, 2018 | Bullish | +3.9% | +7.5% | +3.4% | +0.8% |
| Apr 18, 2018 | Bullish | +0.6% | +4.4% | +4.6% | −2.9% |
| Apr 6, 2018 | Bullish | +2.8% | +6.5% | +12.5% | +0.5% |
| Mar 21, 2018 | Bullish | −1.4% | +2.5% | +8.2% | −4.8% |
Variants tested
The same measures for other common settings, so the result can be checked for luck: a rule that only works with one exact number is fragile. The highlighted row is the published rule.
| Variant | SPY or T-bills, a year | Worst fall | Days bearish | Bearish signals | Followed by a 5% fall | Bullish signals | SPY 3 months after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 days, 3 points behind | 13.9% | −29.1% | 5% | 25 | 41% (9 of 22) | 105 | +3.8% |
| 21 days, 5 points behind | 15.3% | −30.8% | 0% | 4 | 50% (2 of 4) | 105 | +3.8% |
| 21 days, 8 points behind | 14.7% | −33.7% | 0% | 0 | – | 105 | +3.8% |
| 63 days, 3 points behind | 10.9% | −29.1% | 17% | 49 | 33% (15 of 46) | 50 | +3.2% |
| 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule) | 14.9% | −29.2% | 2% | 13 | 38% (5 of 13) | 50 | +3.2% |
| 63 days, 8 points behind | 14.4% | −33.7% | 0% | 0 | – | 50 | +3.2% |
| 126 days, 3 points behind | 11.8% | −23.5% | 32% | 50 | 48% (22 of 46) | 32 | +3.4% |
| 126 days, 5 points behind | 13.0% | −31.4% | 15% | 30 | 24% (7 of 29) | 32 | +3.4% |
| 126 days, 8 points behind | 14.5% | −30.8% | 2% | 12 | 56% (5 of 9) | 32 | +3.4% |
| SPY held throughout | 14.4% | −33.7% | – | – | 34% (any day) | – | +3.7% (any day) |
“SPY or T-bills”: SPY, switching to T-bills (BIL) at the next close after the rule turns bearish and back after it stops, 0.10% per switch, interest and dividends included. Hypothetical: no costs beyond that, no taxes.
Overlap with the other indicators
It agreed most often with Zweig breadth thrust (66% of days in the same state). An indicator that almost always agrees with another adds little to the score.
Agreement with every indicator
| Indicator | Same state |
|---|---|
| Zweig breadth thrust | 66% |
| 90% up and down days | 59% |
| Up/down volume | 59% |
| Stocks above their 20-day average | 58% |
| Hindenburg Omen | 45% |
| Stocks beating SPY | 43% |
| McClellan Oscillator | 42% |
| Stocks above their 200-day average | 37% |
| Sector breadth | 31% |
| New highs minus new lows | 30% |
| Valuation | 30% |
| Small against large companies | 26% |
| Advance-decline line | 26% |
Research: what worked and what did not
The same test run many ways: the published rule year by year, every variant year by year, and grids over its settings. Return numbers are SPY-or-T-bills against SPY over the same days, in points; green means better than holding SPY, red worse.
Year by year
| Year | SPY | SPY or T-bills | Difference, points | SPY’s worst fall | Days bearish | Days bullish | Bearish signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017* | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 difference in 2017 | −0.5% | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| 2018 | −4.6% | −4.6% | +0.0 difference in 2018 | −19.3% | 0% | 21% | 0 |
| 2019 | 31.2% | 31.2% | +0.0 difference in 2019 | −6.6% | 0% | 29% | 0 |
| 2020 | 18.4% | 26.4% | +8.0 difference in 2020 | −33.7% | 1% | 41% | 1 |
| 2021 | 28.7% | 28.7% | +0.0 difference in 2021 | −5.1% | 0% | 27% | 0 |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −16.9% | +1.3 difference in 2022 | −24.5% | 1% | 54% | 2 |
| 2023 | 26.2% | 20.2% | −6.0 difference in 2023 | −10.0% | 6% | 20% | 3 |
| 2024 | 24.9% | 24.8% | −0.0 difference in 2024 | −8.4% | 7% | 29% | 3 |
| 2025 | 17.7% | 17.1% | −0.6 difference in 2025 | −18.8% | 0% | 29% | 1 |
| 2026* | 12.8% | 14.2% | +1.4 difference in 2026 | −8.9% | 8% | 48% | 3 |
* Part of a year: Dec 15 to the end of 2017, and 2026 to Oct 16.
Every variant, year by year
Does a setting win steadily, or in one lucky year? Each square is that year’s difference from SPY.
| Variant | 2017* | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* | A year, whole period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 days, 3 points behind | +0.0 21 days, 3 points behind, 2017 | +0.0 21 days, 3 points behind, 2018 | +0.0 21 days, 3 points behind, 2019 | +6.1 21 days, 3 points behind, 2020 | +4.0 21 days, 3 points behind, 2021 | +0.0 21 days, 3 points behind, 2022 | −3.4 21 days, 3 points behind, 2023 | −7.4 21 days, 3 points behind, 2024 | −1.2 21 days, 3 points behind, 2025 | −5.0 21 days, 3 points behind, 2026 | −0.8 21 days, 3 points behind, a year over the whole period |
| 21 days, 5 points behind | +0.0 21 days, 5 points behind, 2017 | +0.0 21 days, 5 points behind, 2018 | +0.0 21 days, 5 points behind, 2019 | +5.1 21 days, 5 points behind, 2020 | −0.0 21 days, 5 points behind, 2021 | +0.0 21 days, 5 points behind, 2022 | −0.0 21 days, 5 points behind, 2023 | +1.2 21 days, 5 points behind, 2024 | +0.0 21 days, 5 points behind, 2025 | −0.4 21 days, 5 points behind, 2026 | +0.6 21 days, 5 points behind, a year over the whole period |
| 21 days, 8 points behind | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2017 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2018 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2019 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2020 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2021 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2022 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2023 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2024 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2025 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, 2026 | +0.0 21 days, 8 points behind, a year over the whole period |
| 63 days, 3 points behind | +0.0 63 days, 3 points behind, 2017 | −3.6 63 days, 3 points behind, 2018 | +0.0 63 days, 3 points behind, 2019 | −13.9 63 days, 3 points behind, 2020 | −5.4 63 days, 3 points behind, 2021 | +4.7 63 days, 3 points behind, 2022 | −13.0 63 days, 3 points behind, 2023 | +2.3 63 days, 3 points behind, 2024 | −5.9 63 days, 3 points behind, 2025 | +1.9 63 days, 3 points behind, 2026 | −3.5 63 days, 3 points behind, a year over the whole period |
| 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule) | +0.0 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2017, the site's rule | +0.0 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2018, the site's rule | +0.0 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2019, the site's rule | +8.0 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2020, the site's rule | +0.0 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2021, the site's rule | +1.3 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2022, the site's rule | −6.0 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2023, the site's rule | −0.0 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2024, the site's rule | −0.6 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2025, the site's rule | +1.4 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), 2026, the site's rule | +0.5 63 days, 5 points behind (this site's rule), a year over the whole period, the site's rule |
| 63 days, 8 points behind | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2017 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2018 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2019 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2020 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2021 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2022 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2023 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2024 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2025 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, 2026 | +0.0 63 days, 8 points behind, a year over the whole period |
| 126 days, 3 points behind | – 126 days, 3 points behind, 2017 | +7.2 126 days, 3 points behind, 2018 | −0.8 126 days, 3 points behind, 2019 | −6.0 126 days, 3 points behind, 2020 | −1.4 126 days, 3 points behind, 2021 | +0.7 126 days, 3 points behind, 2022 | −7.9 126 days, 3 points behind, 2023 | −15.5 126 days, 3 points behind, 2024 | −1.7 126 days, 3 points behind, 2025 | −1.2 126 days, 3 points behind, 2026 | −2.8 126 days, 3 points behind, a year over the whole period |
| 126 days, 5 points behind | – 126 days, 5 points behind, 2017 | +7.2 126 days, 5 points behind, 2018 | −0.0 126 days, 5 points behind, 2019 | −14.2 126 days, 5 points behind, 2020 | −3.2 126 days, 5 points behind, 2021 | +1.6 126 days, 5 points behind, 2022 | −3.9 126 days, 5 points behind, 2023 | −4.8 126 days, 5 points behind, 2024 | −0.3 126 days, 5 points behind, 2025 | +1.6 126 days, 5 points behind, 2026 | −1.6 126 days, 5 points behind, a year over the whole period |
| 126 days, 8 points behind | – 126 days, 8 points behind, 2017 | +0.0 126 days, 8 points behind, 2018 | +0.0 126 days, 8 points behind, 2019 | +5.1 126 days, 8 points behind, 2020 | +1.2 126 days, 8 points behind, 2021 | −0.0 126 days, 8 points behind, 2022 | −2.2 126 days, 8 points behind, 2023 | −4.0 126 days, 8 points behind, 2024 | +1.7 126 days, 8 points behind, 2025 | −2.3 126 days, 8 points behind, 2026 | −0.1 126 days, 8 points behind, a year over the whole period |
Colour: points of return that year against SPY.8 or more3 to 80.5 to 3−0.5 to 0.5−3 to −0.5−10 to −3below −10 the site’s rule
The settings, tested on a grid
Window and how far behind: return against SPY
Each square: how much more (green) or less (red) a year SPY-or-T-bills returned than SPY. Rows: how many trading days the equal-weight and SPY returns are compared over; columns: how many points behind SPY counts as bearish.
| Bearish when behind by → | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window ↓ | 2 pts | 3 pts | 5 pts | 8 pts | 10 pts | 15 pts | Average |
| 21 days | −4.6 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | −0.8 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | +0.6 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts | +0.0 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | +0.0 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | −0.8 |
| 42 days | −3.9 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | −0.9 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | +0.4 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts | +0.0 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | +0.0 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | −0.7 |
| 63 days | −4.4 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | −3.5 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | +0.5 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts, the site's rule | +0.0 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | +0.0 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | −1.2 |
| 126 days | −1.4 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | −2.8 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | −1.6 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts | −0.1 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | −0.1 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | −1.0 |
| 252 days | −3.0 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | −3.2 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | −1.5 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts | +0.5 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | +0.4 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | −1.1 |
| Average | −3.5 | −2.2 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 | |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
Window and how far behind: how much smaller the worst fall was
Each square: SPY's worst fall minus the strategy's, in points (green: it fell less). Rows: how many trading days the equal-weight and SPY returns are compared over; columns: how many points behind SPY counts as bearish.
| Bearish when behind by → | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window ↓ | 2 pts | 3 pts | 5 pts | 8 pts | 10 pts | 15 pts | Average |
| 21 days | +6.6 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | +4.6 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | +2.9 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts | +0.0 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | +0.0 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 21 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | +2.3 |
| 42 days | +12.3 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | +7.0 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | +2.7 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts | +0.0 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | +0.0 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 42 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | +3.7 |
| 63 days | +12.7 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | +4.6 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | +4.5 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts, the site's rule | +0.0 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | +0.0 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 63 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | +3.6 |
| 126 days | +14.9 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | +10.2 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | +2.3 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts | +2.9 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | +0.0 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 126 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | +5.1 |
| 252 days | +20.0 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 2 pts | +18.3 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 3 pts | +14.9 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 5 pts | +4.6 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 8 pts | +2.9 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 10 pts | +0.0 Window 252 days, bearish when behind by 15 pts | +10.1 |
| Average | +13.3 | +8.9 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +0.6 | +0.0 | |
Colour: points smaller worst fall than SPY's.10 or more5 to 101 to 5−1 to 1−5 to −1−10 to −5below −10 the site’s rule
The two halves of the history
The best settings found over the whole period, and how each did in 2017–2021 and in 2022–2026 on its own. A setting that only works in one half is fitted to the past.
| Setting | Whole period, a year | 2017–2021 | 2022–2026 | Worst fall smaller by | Ahead in both halves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The site's rule, but 21-day window | +0.6 whole period | +1.2 2017 to 2021 | +0.2 2022 to 2026 | +2.9 worst fall | Yes |
| The site's rule, but 252-day window, bearish 8 points behind | +0.5 whole period | +4.6 2017 to 2021 | −1.9 2022 to 2026 | +4.6 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 252-day window, bearish 10 points behind | +0.4 whole period | +0.5 2017 to 2021 | +0.4 2022 to 2026 | +2.9 worst fall | Yes |
| The site's rule, but 42-day window | +0.4 whole period | +0.8 2017 to 2021 | +0.1 2022 to 2026 | +2.7 worst fall | Yes |
| The site's rule, but bearish 8 points behind | +0.0 whole period | +0.0 2017 to 2021 | +0.0 2022 to 2026 | +0.0 worst fall | No |
| The site's rule, but 126-day window, bearish 8 points behind | −0.1 whole period | +1.6 2017 to 2021 | −1.3 2022 to 2026 | +2.9 worst fall | No |
| The site’s rule | +0.5 whole period, the site's rule | +1.9 2017 to 2021, the site's rule | −0.6 2022 to 2026, the site's rule | +4.5 worst fall, the site's rule | No |
Colour: points of return a year against SPY.3 or more1.5 to 30.3 to 1.5−0.3 to 0.3−1.5 to −0.3−3 to −1.5below −3 the site’s rule
Summary: the settings that helped the most
- Best single setting tested: the site's rule, but 21-day window: +0.6 points a year over SPY (+1.2 in 2017–2021, +0.2 in 2022–2026), against +0.5 for the site’s rule. Found by looking at the results, so it is the most flattering number here, not a forecast.
- Window: 42 days did best on average (−0.7), 63 days worst (−1.2).
- Bearish when behind by: 8 pts to 10 pts (identical results) did best on average (+0.1), 2 pts worst (−3.5).
- Choosing the best setting in advance: the setting with the best result in 2017–2021 (the site's rule, but 252-day window, bearish 8 points behind, +4.6) scored −1.9 in 2022–2026, against −0.6 for the site’s rule; 16 of the 30 settings tested beat the rule in those later years.
The site keeps the rule it published, so its live record stays honest. The heat maps show which ingredients mattered across many settings; any one best square is partly luck, because the history holds only a handful of real declines.
Live record
The rule went live after the close of Oct 16, 2026. Every reading since was made by the daily run after that day’s close and is kept exactly as made; the newest few are corrected only if late price data changes them.
No live readings yet: the first comes after the next trading day.
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